Mhux disponibbli bil-Malti

2007 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

	2007	2008	2009	Sep. 2008	Sep. 2009	2012
Mean point estimate	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	1.9	1.9
Standard deviation	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1
Number of replies	57	57	50	50	46	46
Probability distributions	2007	2008	2009	Sep. 2008	Sep. 2009	2012
<0.0%	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.3
0.0-0.4%	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.7
0.5-0.9%	0.3	1.0	1.3	1.5	1.6	2.4
1.0-1.4%	1.1	5.1	8.6	7.9	10.4	10.2
1.5-1.9%	36.1	36.3	38.2	38.9	37.4	38.0
2.0-2.4%	58.5	46.6	40.4	40.3	37.4	35.9
2.5-2.9%	3.6	9.2	9.1	9.5	10.3	9.0
3.0-3.4%	0.3	1.2	1.6	1.3	2.0	2.5
>3.5%	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.9
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

	2007	2008	2009	2008 Q2	2009 Q2	2012
Mean point estimate	2.6	2.1	2.2	2.1	2.2	2.2
Standard deviation	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.3
Number of replies	57	57	50	51	45	43
Probability distributions	2007	2008	2009	2008 Q2	2009 Q2	2012
<0.0%	0.0	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.8
0.0-0.4%	0.1	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.9	1.5
0.5-0.9%	0.3	2.4	2.2	2.4	2.2	3.1
1.0-1.4%	1.0	7.2	8.5	7.6	8.0	7.3
1.5-1.9%	3.6	28.6	25.1	29.9	26.7	22.2
2.0-2.4%	32.2	38.7	37.7	39.7	37.6	39.0
2.5-2.9%	57.4	16.9	18.4	15.4	17.7	16.5
3.0-3.4%	4.6	3.1	4.6	2.9	4.9	6.8
3.5-3.9%	0.6	1.0	1.4	0.8	1.3	2.0
>4.0%	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.4	0.7
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

	2007	2008	2009	Aug. 2008	Aug. 2009	2012
Mean point estimate	7.0	6.7	6.6	6.7	6.6	6.4
Standard deviation	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.6
Number of replies	55	55	47	47	42	40
Probability distributions	2007	2008	2009	Aug. 2008	Aug. 2009	2012
<5.5%	0.0	0.4	1.0	0.3	1.1	6.7
5.5-5.9%	0.3	2.4	4.5	2.5	4.4	10.3
6.0-6.4%	1.5	13.3	22.8	13.7	24.0	24.1
6.5-6.9%	42.0	47.4	39.4	47.8	37.7	29.6
7.0-7.4%	50.3	28.5	22.8	28.4	23.0	15.8
7.5-7.9%	4.8	5.8	6.3	5.4	6.5	6.8
8.0-8.4%	0.6	1.3	1.9	1.1	1.8	3.5
8.5-8.9%	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.9	1.5
9.0-9.4%	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.8
9.5-9.9%	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.5
10.0-10.4%	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2
10.5-10.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
>11.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

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