Mhux disponibbli bil-Malti

2007 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

	2007	2008	Dec. 2007	Dec. 2008	2011
Mean point estimate	2.0	1.9	2.0	1.9	1.9
Standard deviation	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1
Number of replies	63	61	56	54	51
Probability distributions	2007	2008	Dec. 2007	Dec. 2008	2011
<0.0%	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2
0.0-0.4%	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.9
0.5-0.9%	0.8	1.8	0.9	1.9	3.1
1.0-1.4%	6.2	10.0	6.9	11.3	12.0
1.5-1.9%	38.0	43.8	36.3	43.5	39.4
2.0-2.4%	43.8	33.4	41.8	31.2	30.7
2.5-2.9%	9.4	8.8	11.6	9.3	9.8
3.0-3.4%	1.4	1.6	1.9	2.1	2.9
>3.5%	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.9
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

	2007	2008	2007 Q3	2008 Q3	2011
Mean point estimate	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
Standard deviation	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3
Number of replies	63	60	54	52	46
Probability distributions	2007	2008	2007 Q3	2008 Q3	2011
<0.0%	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.6
0.0-0.4%	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.6	1.4
0.5-0.9%	1.1	2.2	1.3	2.6	3.5
1.0-1.4%	5.2	8.2	7.8	8.6	12.8
1.5-1.9%	26.1	26.4	30.5	26.5	28.9
2.0-2.4%	45.8	42.2	41.4	39.0	32.5
2.5-2.9%	17.1	16.0	15.1	18.1	14.6
3.0-3.4%	3.1	3.2	2.6	3.6	3.6
3.5-3.9%	0.7	0.8	0.6	0.7	1.5
>4.0%	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.5
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

	2007	2008	Nov. 2007	Nov. 2008	2011
Mean point estimate	7.5	7.3	7.4	7.2	6.9
Standard deviation	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.5
Number of replies	61	58	50	47	42
Probability distributions	2007	2008	Nov. 2007	Nov. 2008	2011
<5.5%	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	1.7
5.5-5.9%	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.4	3.7
6.0-6.4%	0.7	2.4	0.9	2.9	10.4
6.5-6.9%	4.9	15.6	8.5	21.2	27.8
7.0-7.4%	39.1	39.8	39.2	36.6	26.4
7.5-7.9%	40.6	28.0	35.5	24.7	16.9
8.0-8.4%	10.6	10.4	11.7	10.3	7.3
8.5-8.9%	2.7	2.5	3.1	3.0	3.5
9.0-9.4%	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.7	1.4
9.5-9.9%	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.7
10.0-10.4%	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
10.5-10.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
>11.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

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