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Gernot J. Müller
- 20 December 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2630Details
- Abstract
- We confront the notion that flexible rates insulate a country from external disturbances with new evidence on spillovers from euro-area shocks to neighboring countries. We find that in response to euro-area shocks, spillovers are not smaller, and currency movements not significantly larger, in countries that float their currency, relative to those that peg to the euro—the insulation puzzle. Unconditionally, however, currency volatility is significantly higher for floaters. A state-of-the-art open-economy model can fit our conditional evidence on lack of insulation, provided monetary policy targets headline inflation, but only at the cost of missing the unconditional evidence on currency volatility.
- JEL Code
- F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 17 December 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2628Details
- Abstract
- How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the international adjustment mechanism. First, we rely on high-frequency surprises in the price of gold to identify the effects of global risk shocks in a Bayesian Proxy VAR model. They cause a synchronized contraction of global economic activity and appreciate the dollar. Other key financial indicators adjust in line with pre-dictions of recent theoretical work. Second, we illustrate through counterfactuals that the dollar appreciation amplifies the adverse impact of global risk shocks outside of the US via a financial channel.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
- 3 December 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2621Details
- Abstract
- We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. Firms that expect their production to increase (decrease) in the future are 15 percentage points more (less) likely to raise current production and prices, compared to firms that expect no change in production. In a second step, we show that expectations also matter even if they turn out to be incorrect. Lastly, we aggregate expectation errors across firms and find that they account for about 15 percent of aggregate fluctuations.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E71 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 20 September 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 809Details
- Abstract
- Macroeconomic data suggest that the New Keynesian Phillips curve is quite flat - despite microeconomic evidence implying frequent price adjustments. While real rigidities may help to account for the conflicting evidence, we propose an alternative explanation: if price markup/cost-push shocks are persistent and negatively correlated with the labor share, the latter being a widely used measure for marginal costs, the estimated pass-through of measured marginal costs into inflation is limited, even if prices are fairly flexible. Using a standard New Keynesian model, we show that the GMM approach to the New Keynesian Phillips curve leads to inconsistent and upward biased estimates if cost-push shocks indeed are persistent. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the bias is quite sizeable: we find average price durations estimated as high as 12 quarters, when the true value is about 2 quarters. Moreover, alternative estimators appear to be biased as well, while standard diagnostic tests fail to signal a misspecification of the model.
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
C15 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- 31 January 2006
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 582Details
- Abstract
- Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series for 1957-1979 and 1983-2004, we find government spending shocks to have stronger effects on output, consumption, and wages in the earlier sample. We try to account for this observation within a DSGE model featuring price rigidities and limited asset market participation. Specifically, we estimate the structural parameters of the model for both samples by matching impulse responses. Model-based counterfactual experiments suggest that increased asset market participation accounts for some of the changes in fiscal transmission. However, the key quantitative factor appears to be the more active monetary policy of the Volcker-Greenspan period.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 12 August 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 509Details
- Abstract
- Currently the U.S. is experiencing record budget and current account deficits, a phenomenon familiar from the "Twin Deficits" discussion of the 1980s. In contrast, during the 1990s productivity growth has been identified as the primary cause of the US current account deficit. We suggest a theoretical framework which allows to evaluate empirically the relative importance of budget deficits and productivity shocks for the determination of the current account. Using a sample of 21 OECD countries and time series data from 1960 to 2003 we find little evidence for a contemporaneous effect of budget deficits on the current account, while country-specific productivity shocks appear to play a key role.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 7 July 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 500Details
- Abstract
- Financial frictions affect the way in which different components of GDP respond to a monetary policy shock. We embed the financial accelerator of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) into a medium-scale Dynamic General Equilibrium model and evaluate the relative importance of financial frictions in explaining monetary transmission. Specifically, we match the impulse responses generated by the model with empirical impulse response functions obtained from a vector autoregression on US time series data. This allows us to provide estimates for the structural parameters of our model and judge the relevance of different model features. In addition, we propose a set of simple and instructive specification tests that can be used to assess the relative fit of various restricted models. Although our point estimates suggest some role for financial accelerator effects, they are actually of minor importance for the descriptive success of the model.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
- 27 February 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 311Details
- Abstract
- The paper extends the standard intertemporal model of the current account to include two important stylised facts: (1) the persistence of current account positions and (2) the relevance of the fiscal balance. Specifically, the paper derives a closed form solution for consumption in the presence of habit persistence and liquidity constraints, which allows us to obtain a dynamic model for the current account where fiscal deficits have an effect. The model is estimated for a panel of 33 countries, including the ten EU acceding countries and structural current account positions are derived. A parsimonious specification including relative income, relative investment and the fiscal balance explains well past current account developments. A key finding of the paper is that, from an intertemporal perspective, current accounts in most acceding countries are currently broadly in line with their structural current account positions.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics