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2016 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

	2016	2017	2018	June 2017	June 2018	2021
Mean point estimate	0.3	1.2	1.5	1.1	1.5	1.8
Standard deviation	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2
Number of replies	50	49	38	40	34	37
Probability distributions	2016	2017	2018	June 2017	June 2018	2021
<-1.0%	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.2
-1.0 to -0.6%	2.3	0.5	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.4
-0.5 to -0.1%	17.0	2.7	1.5	4.2	1.7	1.0
0.0 to 0.4%	56.3	9.2	5.8	14.5	6.1	3.5
0.5 to 0.9%	19.0	21.6	13.4	21.0	14.6	8.4
1.0 to 1.4%	3.9	34.9	28.3	32.3	29.2	19.5
1.5 to 1.9%	0.8	21.2	30.7	17.2	28.0	36.2
2.0 to 2.4%	0.2	6.7	13.2	6.5	12.4	18.6
2.5 to 2.9%	0.1	2.1	4.7	2.3	4.9	7.9
3.0 to 3.4%	0.0	0.6	1.4	0.6	1.7	2.9
3.5 to 3.9%	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.6	1.0
>4.0%	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

	2016	2017	2018	2017 Q1	2018 Q1	2021
Mean point estimate	1.5	1.4	1.6	1.3	1.5	1.7
Standard deviation	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.3
Number of replies	51	50	38	40	34	36
Probability distributions	2016	2017	2018	2017 Q1	2018 Q1	2021
<-1.0%	0.0	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3
-1.0 to -0.6%	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.5
-0.5 to -0.1%	0.5	1.7	1.5	2.0	1.5	1.4
0.0 to 0.4%	1.9	4.5	4.4	6.8	4.7	3.7
0.5 to 0.9%	8.9	13.6	11.3	17.2	12.4	9.7
1.0 to 1.4%	33.4	32.0	27.8	33.5	28.7	22.8
1.5 to 1.9%	40.9	29.7	30.9	27.0	30.2	31.2
2.0 to 2.4%	11.3	12.0	15.0	8.8	14.2	17.9
2.5 to 2.9%	2.3	3.3	5.5	2.4	4.9	7.5
3.0 to 3.4%	0.6	1.0	2.2	0.9	1.7	3.4
3.5 to 3.9%	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.5	1.3
>4.0%	0.0	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.3
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

	2016	2017	2018	May 2017	May 2018	2021
Mean point estimate	10.1	9.7	9.5	9.8	9.6	8.8
Standard deviation	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.6
Number of replies	46	45	33	36	29	31
Probability distributions	2016	2017	2018	May 2017	May 2018	2021
<6.5%	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.3
6.5 to 6.9%	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.1	0.2	2.4
7.0 to 7.4%	0.0	0.3	1.1	0.2	0.5	4.1
7.5 to 7.9%	0.1	1.0	2.1	0.4	1.1	6.8
8.0 to 8.4%	0.8	2.2	4.9	1.6	3.5	11.4
8.5 to 8.9%	2.6	5.0	10.5	4.6	10.9	19.7
9.0 to 9.4%	3.7	15.5	22.4	16.2	21.5	23.8
9.5 to 9.9%	21.4	32.7	28.5	30.2	29.5	17.0
10.0 to 10.4%	48.9	27.4	17.2	27.9	18.8	8.3
10.5 to 10.9%	17.4	11.3	8.5	12.6	8.7	3.5
11.0 to 11.4%	3.8	2.9	3.0	4.2	3.5	1.1
11.5 to 11.9%	1.0	0.8	0.8	1.3	1.0	0.4
12.0 to 12.4%	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.2
12.5 to 12.9%	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1
13.0 to 13.4%	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
13.5 to 13.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14.0 to 14.4%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14.5 to 14.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
>15.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

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