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Robert Anderton
- 21 June 2023
- THE ECB BLOGDigitalisation has boosted some European firms’ productivity, but many are still on the digital sidelines. That is a pity as faster digital adoption could make our economies much more productive. This ECB Blog post looks at where and how digitalisation can be a gamechanger.Details
- JEL Code
- O31 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
- 8 March 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2794Details
- Abstract
- Is digitalisation a massive gamechanger which will deliver huge gains in productivity, or is it more of a sideshow with only limited impacts? We use a large balance sheet panel dataset comprising more than 19 million European firm-level observations to empirically investigate the impact of digitalisation on productivity growth via various previously unexplored chan-nels and mechanisms. Our results suggest that for two otherwise identical firms, the firm that exhibits on average a higher share of investment in digital technologies will exhibit a faster rate of TFP growth, but not all firms and sectors experience significant productivity gains from digitalisation. Digitalisation does not seem to have relatively stronger impacts on the productivity of frontier firms compared to laggards, nor does it help to turn laggards into frontier firms. Overall, firms should not regard digital investment as a ‘one-size-fits-all’ strategy to improve their productivity. Digital technologies are a gamechanger for some firms. But they seem more like a sideshow for most firms, who attempt to be increasingly digital but are not able to adequately reap its productivity gains.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 6 January 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Digitalisation – the diffusion of digital technologies, leading to a digital economy is “virtually everywhere”. It transforms economies, making it an important issue from a central banking perspective. Some of the key effects of digitalisation relevant to monetary policy relate to output and productivity, labour markets, wages and prices. This article summarises and updates the evidence on the euro area and the EU digital economy. This article also takes a closer look at the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the digital economy, both in the short term and beyond.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 6 January 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This article analyses labour market developments in the euro area since the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Total hours worked declined sharply in the first half of 2020. However, employment and unemployment reacted only weakly to the marked fall in GDP, as many workers remained employed under job retention schemes. These contributed to a fall in compensation per employee and an increase in compensation per hour worked. Participation in the labour force also dropped substantially, more than offsetting the increase observed since mid-2013. An analysis of the decomposition of labour market shocks via a sign-restricted structural vector-autoregressive model shows that both supply and demand shocks contributed to the decline in total hours worked. High-frequency indicators on hiring rates and job postings have declined sharply since April and continue to indicate a depressed level of labour demand. However, employment and hours worked recovered somewhat in the third quarter. Nonetheless, the COVID-19 pandemic is having a heterogeneous impact on employment across euro area countries and there is the risk of a further increase in geographic divergence in euro area labour markets. Temporary employees, the young and workers with low levels of education were the most affected, while teleworking may have played a role in supporting employment and hours worked for some workers in certain sectors. Activity sectors such as trade and transport and recreation activities have been disproportionately affected, with the largest decreases in hours worked. However, it is too early to assess the extent to which the pandemic will affect the need for labour reallocation across sectors, tasks and occupations.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
- 29 June 2020
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 244Details
- Abstract
- Digitalisation can be viewed as a major supply/technology shock affecting macroeconomic aggregates that are important for monetary policy, such as output, productivity, investment, employment and prices. This paper takes stock of developments in the digital economy and their possible impacts across the euro area and European Union (EU) economies. It also compares how these economies fare relative to other major economies such as that of the United States. The paper concludes that: (i) there is significant country heterogeneity across the EU in terms of the adoption of digital technologies, and most EU countries are falling behind competitors, particularly the United States; (ii) digitalisation is affecting the economy through a number of channels, including productivity, employment, competition and prices; (iii) digitalisation raises productivity and lowers prices, similarly to other supply/technology shocks; (iv) this has implications for monetary policy and its transmission; and (v) structural and other policies may need to be adapted for the euro area and EU countries to fully reap the potential gains from digitalisation, while maintaining inclusiveness.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 29 November 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2332Details
- Abstract
- Productivity performance in European countries has been a policy concern for some time. This paper shows that productivity can be enhanced by product market policies which, by increasing competition and efficiency, facilitate higher rates of firms’ entry and exit (i.e., firm churning). Drawing on annual country-sector data for the period 2000-2014 across the EU countries, we find that: (i) competition-enhancing regulation is associated with a higher rate of firm churning; (ii) business churning, in turn, appears to be positively related to higher total factor productivity at the sector level by facilitating the entry of new competitive firms and the exit of less productive ones. Overall, we conclude that stringent product market regulation can be indirectly associated, via its impact on business dynamism, with the somewhat weak productivity performance in a number of EU countries. Thus, our results point towards significant productivity gains that could follow from the introduction of further competition-enhancing measures in product markets.
- JEL Code
- L51 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Economics of Regulation
P23 : Economic Systems→Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies→Factor and Product Markets, Industry Studies, Population
D21 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Theory
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
- 2 September 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2312Details
- Abstract
- Macroeconomic studies suggest that employment-output elasticities in the euro area increased during the recovery from the crisis, especially in those countries that implemented reforms. In this paper, we use micro (individual-level) data from the Eurostat Labour Force Survey to investigate whether a similar change can be found at the micro level. We estimate the probabilities of worker flows across employment and unemployment in euro area countries during the period 2000-2015 in response to GDP growth, structural reforms and individual socio-demographic characteristics. We find evidence of a higher responsiveness of individual worker flows to output changes after the crisis, particularly for a group of countries which implemented significant reforms during the crisis. Indicators of labour and product market rigidities provide a statistically significant direct indication that such increased responsiveness may be explained by reforms. Finally, our results are not only driven by workers hired on temporary contracts, but also apply to permanent contracts.
- JEL Code
- J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
C25 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, Discrete Regressors, Proportions
K31 : Law and Economics→Other Substantive Areas of Law→Labor Law
- 22 June 2018
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 210Details
- Abstract
- Structural policies in the euro area are of great interest for the Eurosystem, particularly as they can support the smooth functioning of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper adopts a broad definition of structural policies, analysing not only the benefits of efficient labour, product and financial market regulations, but also emphasising the importance of good governance and efficient institutions that ensure high quality and impartial public services, the rule of law and the control of rent-seeking. The paper concludes that there are many opportunities for enhanced structural policies in EU and euro area countries which can yield substantial gains by boosting long-term income and employment growth and supporting social fairness, also via better and more equal opportunities. It provides empirical and model-based analyses on the impacts and the interactions of structural policies, highlighting synergies between growth and inclusiveness, while acknowledging that structural policy changes need to be country-specific to reflect national conditions and social preferences. Welldesigned structural policies would also strengthen economic resilience and convergence of Member States, bringing the euro area closer to the requirements of an optimal currency area and improving the transmission of monetary policy. The paper also discusses the political economy causes of the sluggish implementation of socially beneficial structural policies and assesses ways to deal with possible shortterm costs of reforms.
- JEL Code
- D60 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→General
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
J08 : Labor and Demographic Economics→General→Labor Economics Policies
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
- 11 October 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2103Details
- Abstract
- We explore the impact of wage adjustment on employment with a focus on the role of downward nominal wage rigidities. We use a harmonised survey dataset, which covers 25 European countries in the period 2010-2013. These data are particularly useful for this paper given the firm-level information on the change in economic conditions and collective pay agreements. Our findings confirm the presence of wage rigidities in Europe: first, collective pay agreements reduce the probability of downward wage adjustment; second, the rise in the probability of downward base wage responses following a decrease in demand is significantly smaller than the rise in the probability of an upward wage response associated with an increase in demand. Estimation results point to a negative effect of downward wage rigidities on employment at the firm level.
- JEL Code
- J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General - Network
- Wage dynamics network
- 6 February 2015
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 159Details
- Abstract
- The global financial and economic crisis
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J08 : Labor and Demographic Economics→General→Labor Economics Policies
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J61 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
- 15 December 2014
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1747Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the usefulness of the Okun relationship as a
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models - Network
- 2012 Structural Issues Report
- 3 November 2014
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 156Details
- Abstract
- This paper reviews potential output from a euro area perspective by summarising the developments according to international institutions and assessing the impact of the crisis. The paper also considers the methodological basis for potential output estimates, and the high degree of uncertainty that surrounds them. Although it is too early to see the full effects of structural reforms implemented since 2007/08, further structural reforms are needed to support euro area potential growth, especially in view of the negative impact that population ageing is expected to have on potential growth in the future.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O49 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Other
- 31 October 2012
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 138Details
- Abstract
- Between the start of the economic and financial crisis in 2008, and early 2010, almost four million jobs were lost in the euro area. Employment began to rise again in the first half of 2011, but declined once more at the end of that year and remains at around three million workers below the pre-crisis level. However, in comparison with the severity of the fall in GDP, employment adjustment has been relatively muted at the aggregate euro area level, mostly due to significant labour hoarding in several euro area countries. While the crisis has, so far, had a more limited or shorter-lived impact in some euro area countries, in others dramatic changes in employment and unemployment rates have been observed and, indeed, more recent data tend to show the effects of a re-intensification of the crisis. The main objectives of this report are: (a) to understand the notable heterogeneity in the adjustment observed across euro area labour markets, ascertaining the role of the various shocks, labour market institutions and policy responses in shaping countries
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 30 September 2011
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 128Details
- Abstract
- The distributive trades sector, which is primarily accounted for by wholesale and retail trade, is not only economically important in its own right, but also relevant to monetary policy. Ultimately, it is retailers who set the actual prices of most consumer goods. They are the main interface between producers of consumer goods and consumers, with around half of private consumption accounted for by retail trade. The
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 22 August 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1370Details
- Abstract
- This paper aims to shed light on why the downturn in global trade during the intensification of the financial crisis in 2008Q4-2009Q1 was so severe and synchronized across the world, and also examines the subsequent recovery in global trade during 2009Q2-2010Q1. The paper finds that a structural imports function which captures the different and time-varying importintensities of the components of total final expenditure can explain the sharp decline in global imports of goods and services. By contrast, a specification based on aggregate total expenditure can not fully capture the global trade downturn. In particular, panel estimates for a large number of OECD countries suggest that the high import-intensity of exports at the country-level can explain a significant proportion of the decline in world imports during the crisis, while declines in the highly import-intensive expenditure category of investment also contributed to the remaining fall in global trade. At the same time, the high and rising import-intensity of exports also reflects and captures the rapid growth in “vertical specialisation”, suggesting that widespread global production chains may have amplified the downturn in world trade and partly explains its high-degree of synchronisation across the globe. In addition, the estimates find that stockbuilding, business confidence and credit conditions also played a role in the global trade downturn. Meanwhile, the global trade recovery (2009Q2-2010Q1) can only be partially explained by differential elasticities for the components of demand (although the results confirm that the upturn in OECD imports was also driven by strong export growth and the associated reactivation of global production chains, as well as the recovery in stockbuilding and the fiscal stimulus). This may be due in part to the many policy measures that were implemented to boost global trade at that time and which can not be captured by the specification.
- JEL Code
- E0 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- 16 October 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 532Details
- Abstract
- The aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the key determinants of intra- and extra-euro area imports. Using a simultaneous equation estimation framework, and pooling the data across nine euro area countries as an approximation of the euro area, we estimate intra- and extra-euro area import demand functions and impose various restrictions within and across equations. We find that there are significant substitution effects between intra- and extra-euro area imports due to changes in their relative prices, while exchange rate volatility decreases trade vis-à-vis regions characterised by volatility and leads to substitution of trade away from higher-volatility regions towards lower-volatility regions.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O3 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights
- 9 June 2005
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 30Details
- Abstract
- Chapter 1 provides an overview and assessment of the price competitiveness and export performance of the euro area and the larger euro area countries, as well as an evaluation of how standard equations have been able to explain actual export developments. Chapter 2 carries out a constant market share analysis for the euro area and thereby sheds light on the reasons for movements in aggregate export market shares by looking at the sectoral and geographical composition of euro area exports. Chapter 3 looks at the evolution of the technological competitiveness of the euro area and major competitors
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- 26 April 2004
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 12Details
- Abstract
- Overall, the paper underlines the difficulties in spelling out the transmission and the final effects of external shocks on the euro area, and highlights the complexity of the various direct and indirect mechanisms. We describe the main channels by which potential spillovers from external economic shocks may affect the euro area. Although the evidence is unclear on the extent to which the synchronisation of international cycles may have changed, the conclusion of the paper is that the
- JEL Code
- E : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
F : International Economics
- 6 April 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 329Details
- Abstract
- The long-run determinants of euro area FDI to the United States during the period 1980-2001 are explained by employing the Tobin's Q-model of investment. By using the fixed effects panel estimator, stock market developments in the euro area countries - including a measure adjusted for economic developments common to both the United States and the euro area - are found to influence euro area FDI to the United States. Moreover, the inclusion of the Tobin's Q enhances the traditional knowledge-capital framework specification. Overall, the empirical findings suggest that euro area patents (ownership advantage), various variables related to productivity in the United States (location advantage), the volume of bilateral telephone traffic to the United States relative to euro area GDP (ownership advantage), euro area stock market developments (Tobin's Q), and the real exchange rate are statistically significant determinants of euro area FDI to the United States.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
- 1 June 2003
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 238Details
- Abstract
- Two seemingly unconnected empirical results suggest an intriguing mechanism. First, economic integration helps harmonize prices internationally, with trade being the primary channel (Rogoff 1996, Goldberg and Knetter 1997). Second, monetary union may greatly increase the amount of trade among members (Rose 2001). Putting these together, we see that formation of a monetary union may induce changes that help harmonise inflation rates. The effect might be large if the elimination of exchange rate volatility simultaneously leads to a large increase in intra-union trade and a big increase in the speed at which price shocks are transmitted across members' goods markets. This paper investigates part of this mechanism and finds that monetary union may indeed result in faster cross-border transmission of price movements via the import and export price channel which, in turn, would tend to homogenise price movements across the member countries of a monetary union.
- JEL Code
- D40 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→General
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
- 1 March 2003
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 219Details
- Abstract
- This paper uses a model of import prices whereby exporters to the euro area set export prices partly as a mark-up on their production costs (i.e., the degree of exchange rate pass-through) and partly in line with euro area producer prices (i.e., pricing-to-market). Using both time series and panel estimation techniques, the econometric results suggest that the pass through of changes in the effective exchange rate of the euro to the price of extra-euro area imports of manufactures is around 50% - 70%, while pricing-to-market has an estimated weight of between 50% - 30%. We also find some evidence of differences across import suppliers, with EU member states who are not part of the euro area assigning a relatively larger weight to pricing-to-market, while euro area imports from the United States seem to be characterised by a relatively higher degree of exchange rate pass-through.
- JEL Code
- D40 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→General
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
- 1 May 2001
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 64Details
- Abstract
- This paper estimates an import demand function for the euro area vis--vis its main extra-area trading partners which takes into account the possible impact of both intra- and extra-euro area exchange rate uncertainty. We derive a theoretical model which captures various mechanisms by which exchange rate volatility may influence the demand for extra-euro area imports. If importers are risk averse, the model predicts not only a negative effect of exchange rate volatility, but also substitution possibilities between extra- and intra-area imports due to differences in the degree of extra- and intra-area exchange rate volatility. The magnitude of these impacts also depends on the share of trade invoiced in foreign currency (and not hedged) as well as the degree of substitutability between the imports of different suppliers. Using quarterly data for the past eleven years, panel estimates suggest that extra-area exchange rate volatility may have decreased extra-euro area imports by around 10 per cent. Although such quantitative estimates should be treated with caution, the magnitude of our estimate is similar to other studies which find a statistically significant impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows. Finally, we also provide some limited evidence that differences in extra- and intra-area exchange rate volatility may have resulted in substitution between extra- and intra-area imports.
- JEL Code
- F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange