Katarzyna Budnik
Monetary Policy
- Division
Monetary Analysis
- Current Position
-
Adviser
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Mathematical and Quantitative Methods,Financial Economics
- Other current responsibilities
- 2018-2022
Co-chairing of the Macro-Micro FSC Working Group on Stress Testing Workstream
- 2018-2022
Co-chair of the Scenario/Stress Testing FSC/ESRB Project Group on Climate Risks Workstream
- 2020-2022
Chair of the Working Group on Stress Testing
- 2018-2019
Chair of the Measurement ESRB Macroprudential Stance Task Force Workstream
- 2016-2017
Chair of the Empirical Macro Task Force on Operationalisation of Macroprudential Research Workstream
- Education
- 2004-2008
Ph.D. in Economics (award of excellence/summa cum laude), Warsaw School of Economics
- 1999-2004
M.Sc. in Economics, Quantitative Methods and Information Systems - Warsaw School of Economics
- Professional experience
- 2024-
Adviser - Monetary Analysis, DG Monetary Policy, European Central Bank
- 2021-2024
Adviser - Stress Test Modelling, DG Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability, European Central Bank
- 2017-2021
Team Lead - Stress Test Modelling, DG Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability, European Central Bank
- 2015-2017
Senior Financial Stability Expert - Macro-Financial Policies, DG Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability, European Central Bank
- 2010-2015
Economist - Department Economic Developments, DG Economics, European Central Bank
- 2010
Visiting researcher - Forschungszentrum, Deutsche Bundesbank
- 2005-2010
Head of Macroeconomic Forecasts Division - Economic Institute, National Bank of Poland
- 2008
Visiting researcher, Foreign Research Division, ̈Osterreichische Nationalbank
- 2004-2005
Economist - Enterprise Sector Analysis Division, Department of Macroeconomic and Structural Analysis, National Bank of Poland
- 2004
Economist - Trading Room, BRE Bank SA/Commerzbank A.G.
- Teaching experience
- 2004-2008
Macroeconomics, Microeconomics, Public policies - Warsaw School of Economics
- 15 May 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2941Details
- Abstract
- This paper proposes an operational approach to stress testing, allowing one to assess the banking sector’s vulnerability in multiple plausible macro-financial scenarios. The approach helps identify macro-financial risk factors of particular relevance for the banking system and individual banks and searches for scenarios that could push them towards their worst outcomes. We demonstrate this concept using a macroprudential stress testing model for the euro area. By doing so, we show how multiple-scenario stress testing can complement single-scenario stress tests, aid in scenario design, and evaluate risks in the banking system. We also show how stress tests and scenarios can be optimized to accommodate different mandates and instruments of supervisory and macroprudential agencies.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 15 May 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 348Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an overview of stress-testing methodologies in Europe, with a focus on the advancements made by the European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Committee Working Group on Stress Testing (WGST). Over a four-year period, the WGST played a pivotal role in refining stress-testing practices, promoting collaboration among central banks and supervisory authorities and addressing challenges in the evolving financial landscape. The paper discusses the development and application of various stress-testing models, including top-down models, macro-micro models and system-wide models. It highlights the integration of new datasets and model validation efforts as well as the expanded use of stress-testing methodologies in risk and policy evaluation and in communication. The collaborative efforts of the WGST have demystified stress-testing methodologies and fostered trust among stakeholders. The paper concludes by outlining the future agenda for continued improvements in stress-testing practices.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
- 11 October 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2855Details
- Abstract
- The Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST) is a large-scale semi-structural model developed to analyse the euro area banking system from a macroprudential perspective. The model combines the dynamics of approximately 90 of the largest euro area banks with those of individual euro area economies. It reflects the heterogeneity of banks by replicat-ing the structure of their balance sheets and profit and loss accounts. Additionally, it allows banks to adjust their assets, funding mix, pricing decisions, management buffers, and profit distribution along with individual bank conditions, including their capital and liquidity re-quirements, and other supervisory limits. The responses of banks impact credit supply con-ditions and have feedback effects on the macroeconomic environment. Stochastic solutions of the model provide a solid foundation for investigating multiple scenarios, deriving at-risk measures, and estimating model uncertainty. The model is regularly utilised to assess the resilience of the euro area banking sector, including in the biennial ECB macroprudential stress tests, as well as to analyse the effects of regulatory, macroprudential, and monetary policy changes.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 12 September 2022
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 301Details
- Abstract
- This paper proposes a methodology for measuring the macroprudential policy stance based on a distance-to-tail metric perspective. This approach employs a large-scale semi-structural model reflecting the dynamics of 91 significant euro area banks and 19 euro area economies and is presented through an assessment of the stance evolution for the aggregate euro area economy and for the individual euro area countries. Our results uncover mild tightening of the macroprudential policy stance before the end of 2019. This trend is abruptly interrupted at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic but reappears at the end of 2020 before picking up again over the first half of 2021. Our assessment also reveals a marginal impact of the macro-financial policies applied, which is particularly notable throughout 2020.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 27 July 2022
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 297Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks at the macroeconomic impact of the two policies proposed by ECB Banking Supervision to tackle the high share of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the balance sheets of euro area banks. The first is the coverage expectations for new NPLs set out in the Addendum to the ECB’s NPL Guidance, which aim to prevent the build-up of new NPLs, and the second is the coverage expectations for legacy NPLs, which target the reduction of already existing stocks of NPLs. The impact assessment of the package is analysed via a semi-structural model, the Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST). The coverage expectations for NPLs are found to be effective in reducing banks’ NPLs. The phase-in of the policies can temporarily reduce bank profitability owing to increased loan loss provisioning targets. However, over a longer time horizon, lower NPL ratios reduce uncertainty and enable banks to access cheaper funding in the markets, ultimately benefiting lending and output growth. Furthermore, the coverage expectations can also moderately but persistently reduce procyclicality in the banking system.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 13 June 2022
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 17Details
- Abstract
- Regulatory stress tests have outgrown their initial role of assessing the robustness of individual financial institutions. Today, they are used to test the resilience of financial systems, set prudential policies, and communicate with the industry and markets.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 13 June 2022
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 17Details
- Abstract
- Macroprudential stress testing has provided timely policy assessment to tackle high levels of uncertainty about future developments during the COVID-19 pandemic and to back communications promoting the use of macroprudential capital buffers by banks. The lessons learned from the crisis can inform the setting of buffers along the path to policy normalisation.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 17 November 2021
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021Details
- Abstract
- The ECB’s biennial macroprudential stress test evaluates the resilience of the euro area banking system, this year also assessing the impact of pandemic-related policy measures. While relying on the same adverse and baseline scenarios as the EBA/SSM supervisory stress test, it also employs a dynamic balance sheet perspective and introduces amplification mechanisms relying on the banking euro area stress test model framework as outlined in Budnik et al. (2020). The results indicate a strong bank capitalisation under the baseline scenario combined with a subdued outlook for bank profitability. The lending outlook differs sharply for the two scenarios where policy support measures have a clear positive effect, especially in the adverse scenario, and have helped to ensure the resilience of the financial system.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 19 October 2021
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 15Details
- Abstract
- The publication introduces a stress test approach which recognises that banks adjust to scenario adversity and that climate-related risks ingrained in long-term climate-related scenarios add to other deep-seated cyclical and structural risks in economic systems. This macroprudential approach quantifies the impact of climate-oriented scenarios on the banking system by looking at both the expected long-term growth trajectories and the cumulation of risks in lower tails of growth distribution.
- JEL Code
- E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 26 July 2021
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 14Details
- Abstract
- This article assesses the economic costs and benefits of the Basel III finalisation package for the euro area and shows that the transitory costs of the reform are outweighed by its permanent long-term benefits. Implementing EU-specific modifications to the Basel III reform, such as the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) supporting factor, credit valuation adjustment (CVA) exemptions and discretion with regard to the operational risk capital charge, reduce the already moderate transitory costs of the reform, although they also reduce its long-run benefits. Approaches that, in addition, modify the implementation of the output floor fail to further reduce the short-term economic costs of the reform while again decreasing its long-term benefits.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 23 July 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 258Details
- Abstract
- This paper assesses the macroeconomic implications of the Basel III finalisation for the euro area, employing a large-scale semi-structural model encompassing over 90 banks and 19-euro area economies. The new regulatory framework will influence banks’ reactions to economic conditions and, as a result, affect the ability of the banking system to amplify or dampen economic shocks. The assessment covers the entire distribution of conditional economic predictions to measure the cost and benefit of the reforms. Looking at the means of conditional forecasts of output growth provides an indication of the costs of the reform, namely a transitory reduction in euro area gross domestic product (GDP) and in lending to the non-financial private sector. Looking at the lower percentile of output growth forecasts, i.e. growth at risk, captures the long-term benefits of the Basel III finalisation package in terms of improved resilience and the ability of the banking system to supply lending to the real economy under adverse conditions. These permanent growth-at-risk benefits ultimately outweigh the short-term costs of the reform.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 21 May 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 257Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks at the impact of mitigation policies implemented by supervisory and macroprudential authorities as well as national governments in the euro area during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic to support lending to the real economy. The impact assessment concerns joint, and individual, effect of supervisory measures introduced by the ECB Banking Supervision, a reduction in macroprudential buffers put forward by national macroprudential authorities, and public moratoria and guarantee schemes. The analysis has been conducted in the first half of 2020, in a situation of high uncertainty about how the crisis will develop in the future. Against this backdrop, it proposes a method of addressing such uncertainty by assessing the impact of policies across a full range of scenarios. We find that the supervisory, macroprudential and government policies should have helped to maintain higher lending to the non-financial private sector (around 5% higher than lending in the absence of policy measures) and, in particular, to non-financial corporations (12% higher than lending in the absence of policy measures), preventing further amplification of the recession via the banking sector. The national and supervisory and macroprudential actions have reinforced each other, and have been jointly able to affect a broader share of the banking sector.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 25 November 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box explores the potential macroeconomic impact of different capital buffer replenishment paths. Model simulations show that replenishing capital buffers too early or too aggressively could be counterproductive and prolong the economic downturn. While the costs of restoring capital buffers to pre-crisis levels are not excessive if the economy moves along the central projection scenario, a weaker economic environment would increase bank losses and result in a more extensive use of capital buffers. In such a scenario, a later and more gradual restoration of capital buffers would be warranted.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
C68 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computable General Equilibrium Models
- 25 November 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box introduces the adverse scenario simulation and selection procedure used to assess the banking system resilience quantitatively. The adverse scenario paths are derived directly from the output of the ECB macro-micro model by generating a large number of alternative paths for economic and bank-level variables. The simulation technique uses combinations of macro-financial shocks sourced from their historical distributions. Given the simulated distribution of possible future economic conditions, the selected scenarios are then sorted out among adverse paths where the evolution of variables mirrors a particular narrative commonly linked to prevalent financial stability concerns.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 19 October 2020
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 11Details
- Abstract
- This article analyses the role of capital buffers in containing the reduction of lending to the real economy during the COVID-19 crisis. Our results show that banks’ use of capital buffers leads to better economic outcomes, without a negative impact on their resilience. Banks’ willingness to use capital buffers is reflected in higher lending, with positive effects on GDP and lower credit losses, while the resilience of the banking system is not compromised.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 21 September 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2469Details
- Abstract
- The Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST) is a large scale semi-structural model developed to assess the resilience of the euro area banking system from a macroprudential perspective. The model combines the dynamics of a high number of euro area banks with that of the euro area economies. It reflects banks’ heterogeneity by replicating the structure of their balance sheets and profit and loss accounts. In the model, banks adjust their assets, interest rates, and profit distribution in line with the economic conditions they face. Bank responses feed back to the macroeconomic environment affecting credit supply conditions. When applied to a stress test of the euro area banking system, the model reveals higher system-wide capital depletion than the analogous constant balance sheet exercise.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 28 August 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2462Details
- Abstract
- The paper inspects the credit impact of policy instruments that are commonly applied to contain systemic risk. It employs detailed information on the use of capital-based, borrower-based and liquidity-based instruments in 28 European Union countries in 1995—2017 and a macroeconomic panel setup. The paper finds a significant impact of capital buffers, profit distribution restrictions, specific and general loan-loss provisioning regulations, sectoral risk weights and exposure limits, borrower-based measures, caps on long-term maturity and exchange rate mismatch, and asset-based capital requirements on credit to the non-financial private sector. Furthermore, the business cycle and monetary policy influence the effectiveness of most of the macroprudential instruments. Therein, capital buffers and sectoral risk weights act countercyclically irrespectively of the prevailing monetary policy stance, while a far richer set of policy instruments can act countercyclically in combination with the appropriate monetary policy stance.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 6 January 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2353Details
- Abstract
- We study identification in Bayesian proxy VARs for instruments that con-sist of sparse qualitative observations indicating the signs of shocks in specific periods. We propose the Fisher discriminant regression and a non-parametric sign concordance criterion as two alternative methods for achieving correct inference in this case. The former represents a minor deviation from a standard proxy VAR, whereas the non-parametric approach builds on set identification. Our application to U.S. macroprudential policies finds persistent declines in credit volumes and house prices together with moderate declines in GDP and inflation and a widening of corporate bond spreads after a tightening of capital requirements or mortgage underwriting standards.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
- 2 July 2019
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 226Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of adverse scenarios on economies and the financial system as a whole by acknowledging a broad set of interactions and interdependencies between banks, other market participants, and the real economy. Our results highlight the importance of the starting level of bank capital, bank asset quality, and banks’ adjustments for the propagation of shocks to the financial sector and real economy.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 12 April 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2261Details
- Abstract
- The paper proposes a framework for assessing the impact of system-wide and bank-level capital buffers. The assessment rests on a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model that relates individual bank adjustments to macroeconomic dynamics. We estimate FAVAR models individually for eleven euro area economies and identify structural shocks, which allow us to diagnose key vulnerabilities of national banking systems and estimate short-run economic costs of increasing banks’ capitalisation. On this basis, we run a fully-fledged cost-benefit assessment of an increase in capital buffers. The benefits are related to an increase in bank resilience to adverse shocks. Higher capitalisation allows banks to withstand negative shocks and moderates the reduction of credit to the real economy that ensues in adverse circumstances. The costs relate to transitory credit and output losses that are assessed both on an aggregate and bank level. An increase in capital ratios is shown to have a sharply different impact on credit and economic activity depending on the way banks adjust, i.e. via changes in assets or equity.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 27 March 2019
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 7Details
- Abstract
- The macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system examines the effects of the baseline and adverse scenarios on the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The analysis looks at the financial system as a whole and acknowledges the interdependencies between banks and the real economy. In particular, it takes into account banks’ reaction to changing economic conditions and to deterioration in their balance sheets. The results indicate substantial resilience of the euro area banking system at the current juncture. The macroprudential stress test predicts a lower negative impact on capital ratios, though higher capital depletion, in billions of euro, than a static balance-sheet stress test. It also shows that banks’ deleveraging tied to deteriorating capitalisation and asset quality leads to further deterioration in economic conditions in an adverse scenario.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 4 October 2018
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 214Details
- Abstract
- This study provides a conceptual and monitoring framework for systemic liquidity, as well as a legal assessment of the possible use of macroprudential liquidity tools in the European Union. It complements previous work on liquidity and focuses on the development of liquidity risk at the system-wide level. A dashboard with a total of 20 indicators is developed for the financial system, including banks and non-banks, to assess the build-up of systemic liquidity risk over time. In addition to examining liquidity risks, this study sheds light on the legal basis for additional macroprudential liquidity tools under existing regulation (Article 458 of the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR), Articles 105 and 103 of the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD IV) and national law), which is a key condition for the implementation of macroprudential liquidity tools.
- 15 January 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2123Details
- Abstract
- This paper introduces a new comprehensive data set on policies of a macroprudential nature in the banking sectors of the 28 member states of the European Union (EU) between 1995 and 2014. The Macroprudential Policies Evaluation Database (MaPPED) offers a detailed overview of the “life-cycle” of policy instruments which are either genuinely macroprudential or are essentially microprudential but likely to have a significant impact on the whole banking system. It tracks events of the introduction, recalibration and termination of eleven categories and 53 subcategories of instruments. MaPPED has been based on a carefully designed questionnaire, which has been completed in cooperation with experts from national central banks and supervisory authorities of all EU member states. This paper describes the design and structure of the new data set and presents the first descriptive analysis of the use of policy measures with a macroprudential nature in the EU over the last two decades. The results indicate that there has been a remarkable variation in the use of policies of a macroprudential nature both across EU countries and over time. Moreover, the analysis provides some tentative evidence of an impact of capital buffers, lending restrictions and caps on maturity mismatches on credit to the non-financial private sector in the EU as well as of the relative ineffectiveness of sectoral risk weights in controlling credit growth.
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 22 December 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2120Details
- Abstract
- How do capital and liquidity buffers affect the evolution of bank loans in periods of financial and economic distress? To answer this question we study the responses of 219 individual banks to aggregate demand, standard and unconventional monetary policy shocks in the euro area between 2007 and 2015. Banks’ responses are derived from a factor-augmented VAR, which relates macroeconomic aggregates to individual bank balance sheet items and interest rates. We find that banks with high capital and liquidity buffers show a more muted response in their lending to adverse real economy shocks. Capital and liquidity buffers also affect bank responses to monetary policy shocks. High bank capitalisation reduces the degree to which banks increase the average duration of loans to the non-financial corporate sector, while high bank liquidity strengthens the positive response to policy easing of both longand short-term loans to the non-financial corporate sector. The latter findings substantiate the relevance of interactions between prudential controls and monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 31 October 2012
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 138Details
- Abstract
- Between the start of the economic and financial crisis in 2008, and early 2010, almost four million jobs were lost in the euro area. Employment began to rise again in the first half of 2011, but declined once more at the end of that year and remains at around three million workers below the pre-crisis level. However, in comparison with the severity of the fall in GDP, employment adjustment has been relatively muted at the aggregate euro area level, mostly due to significant labour hoarding in several euro area countries. While the crisis has, so far, had a more limited or shorter-lived impact in some euro area countries, in others dramatic changes in employment and unemployment rates have been observed and, indeed, more recent data tend to show the effects of a re-intensification of the crisis. The main objectives of this report are: (a) to understand the notable heterogeneity in the adjustment observed across euro area labour markets, ascertaining the role of the various shocks, labour market institutions and policy responses in shaping countries
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 2024
- Economic Notes
- 2022
- Journal of Applied Econometrics
- 2022
- VoxEU Column / 20 Jun 2022
- 2012
- National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 113
- 2011
- Bank and Credit
- 2011
- Monetary PolicyInflation Projections
- 2011
- National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 90
- 2009
- Focus on European Economic Integration
- 2009
- National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 64
- 2009
- National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 62
- 2008
- National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 45
- 2008
- National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 48
- 2007
- National Bank of Poland Working Paper 44
- 2006
- Bank and Credit