Paul McNelis
- 28 April 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 352Details
- Abstract
- This paper applies linear and neural network-based "thick" models for forecasting inflation based on Phillips-curve formulations in the USA, Japan and the euro area. Thick models represent "trimmed mean" forecasts from several neural network models. They outperform the best performing linear models for "real-time" and "bootstrap" forecasts for service indices for the euro area, and do well, sometimes better, for the more general consumer and producer price indices across a variety of countries.
- JEL Code
- C12 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Hypothesis Testing: General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation