Non disponibile in italiano
Natalia Martín Fuentes
Supervisory Strategy & Risk
- Division
Strategic Risk & Analytics
- Current Position
-
Supervisor
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Financial Economics,International Economics
- Education
- 2018-2024
PhD in Economics (Cum Laude), University of Málaga, Spain
- 2019-2021
MicroMasters in Statistics and Data Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Online
- 2017-2018
MSc in Economic Analysis, University of Málaga, Spain
- 2013-2017
BA in Business Management, University of Málaga, Spain
- Teaching experience
- 2019
Economic Policy - Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, University of Málaga, Spain
- 6 November 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2864Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the contribution of capital markets to international risk sharing in the euro area over the 2000Q1-2021Q1 period. It provides three main contributions: First, the estimation of country-specific vector autoregressions (VAR) shows that shock absorption through capital markets remains modest, particularly in the southern euro area. Second, we analyse the geographical patterns of the capital channel. While risk sharing between southern and northern euro area countries led the improvements in income smoothing at the beginning of the 2000s, intra-regional capital flows supported income smoothing in the recent past. Third, based on a panel threshold VAR, we analyse how the composition of external capital positions impacts the capital channel. Long-term portfolio debt assets and liabilities as well as equity liabilities significantly improved income smoothing. The effect is more pronounced for northern countries, in line with their larger cross-border portfolios, when compared to the southern countries. Regarding foreign direct investment, only northern countries benefited from inward positions.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 17 August 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 327Details
- Abstract
- This investigation starts with the observation that, over the last decade, profitability rates reported by euro area (EA) banks have remained, on average, persistently below those reported by peer banks in the United States (US). In particular, banks’ return on equity (ROE) has fluctuated around 5% in the EA, but around 10% in the US, indicating a profitability gap of around 5 percentage points. However, while comparisons are frequently made between EA and US banks in academic and political debate, they are not perfect benchmarks, nor should this paper be regarded as aiming for a like-for-like comparison.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 12 May 2022
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 293Details
- Abstract
- In July 2021 the Eurosystem decided to launch the investigation phase of the digital euro project, which aims to provide euro area citizens with access to central bank money in an increasingly digitalised world. While a digital euro could offer a wide range of benefits, it could prompt changes in the demand for bank deposits and services from private financial entities (ECB, 2020a), with knock-on consequences for bank lending and resilience. By inducing bank disintermediation, a central bank digital currency, or CBDC, could in principle alter the transmission of monetary policy and impact financial stability. To prevent this risk, options to moderate CBDC take-up are being discussed widely.In view of the significant degree of uncertainty surrounding the design of a potential digital euro, its demand and the prevailing environment in which it would be introduced, this paper explores a set of analytical exercises that can offer insights into the consequences it could have for bank intermediation in the euro area.Based on assumptions about the degree of substitution between different forms of money in normal times, several take-up scenarios are calculated to illustrate how the potential demand for a digital euro might shape up. The paper then analyses the mechanisms through which commercial banks and the central bank could react to the introduction of a digital euro. Overall, effects on bank intermediation are found to vary across credit institutions in normal times and to be potentially larger in stressed times. Further, a potential digital euro’s capacity to alter system-wide bank run dynamics appears to depend on a few crucial factors, such as CBDC remuneration and usage limits.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 268Details
- Abstract
- The aim of this report is to foster a better understanding of past trends in, and drivers of, productivity growth in the countries of the European Union (EU) and of the interplay between productivity and monetary policy. To this end, a group of experts from 15 national central banks and the European Central Bank (ECB) joined forces and pooled data and expertise for more than 18 months to produce the report. Group members drew on the extensive research already conducted on productivity growth, including within the European System of Central Banks and in the context of the review of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, and worked together to conduct new analyses.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
D61 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Allocative Efficiency, Cost?Benefit Analysis
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 7 January 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box aims to assess the long-term implications of past crises for the global economy’s potential output and to discuss potential scarring effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Starting with a review of past crises and the transmission channels through which potential output is affected, it concludes that the pandemic could leave scarring effects on the global economy, with labour supply likely to be initially hit the most. However, effects on the capital stock are potentially more relevant over the medium to long term.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General