Nie ma wersji polskiej
Michael Sigmund
- 18 March 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3039Details
- Abstract
- We analyze the impact of negative reference rates on the interest rate behavior of more than 500 Austrian banks from 2009Q1 to 2021Q4. Using panel vector error correction analysis with the Engle-Granger procedure in two steps, we establish a cointegration vector that links bank-specific lending rates, deposit rates, the 3-month Euribor, and the ECB Deposit Facility Rate. We propose two hypotheses to evaluate the effects of negative 3-month Euribor on this vector. Firstly, we explore how an Austrian Supreme Court decision enforcing a zerolower bound on household deposits could decrease the lending-deposit rate spread. Secondly, we examine the emergence of two “true prices” for loans and deposits due to the negative 3-month Euribor. This is linked to an Austrian Supreme Court decision mandating the transmission of negative reference rates to bank-specific lending rates, potentially affecting cointegration with the 3-month Euribor. Our findings show a significant spread reduction after the introduction of negative reference rates, primarily driven by changes in the cointegration relationship between bank-specific lending rates and the 3-month Euribor. Additionally, by including the ECB Deposit Facility in our cointegration model, we capture the direct impact of the Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations on the lending rate.
- JEL Code
- C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- 26 February 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 368Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an overview of recent analytical work conducted, under their own aegis, by experts from various European authorities and institutions in the field of crypto-asset monitoring. Currently, risks stemming from crypto-assets and the potential implications for central banking domains are limited and/or manageable, including as regards the existing regulatory and oversight frameworks. Nevertheless, the importance of monitoring developments in crypto-assets, raising awareness of the potential risks and fostering preparedness cannot be overstated. In light of this, this paper sets out the background to the establishment of the Crypto-Asset Monitoring Expert Group (CAMEG) in late 2023 to bring together experts from the Eurosystem’s central banks and from the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB). It also provides abstracts of various papers and other analytical works presented at the inaugural CAMEG conference held on 24 and 25 October 2024. The conference aimed to take stock of analytical work and data issues in this area, while fostering European collaboration and monitoring in the field of crypto-assets. Finally, this paper outlines the prospective way forward for the CAMEG, focusing on gaining greater insight into data in this area and deepening analytical work on interlinkages, crypto-asset adoption and the latest trends.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 270Details
- Abstract
- The financing structure of the euro area economy has evolved since the global financial crisis with non-bank financial intermediation taking a more prominent role. This shift affects the transmission of monetary policy. Compared with banks, non-bank financial intermediaries are more responsive to monetary policy measures that influence longer-term interest rates, such as asset purchases. The increasing role of debt securities in the financing structure of firms also leads to a stronger transmission of long-rate shocks. At the same time, short-term policy rates remain an effective tool to steer economic outcomes in the euro area, which is still highly reliant on bank loans. Amid a low interest rate environment, the growth of market-based finance has been accompanied by increased credit, liquidity and duration risk in the non-bank sector. Interconnections in the financial system can amplify contagion and impair the smooth transmission of monetary policy in periods of market distress. The growing importance of non-bank financial intermediaries has implications for the functioning of financial market segments relevant for monetary policy transmission, in particular the money markets and the bond markets.
- JEL Code
- E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation