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Jan Brůha
- 10 May 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2058Details
- Abstract
- What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The positive co-movement of real output and inflation convincingly argues for a demand story. This feature—robust across time and space—provides a simple smell test for structural macroeconomic models. We propose a simple statistic that can compare data and models. Based on this statistic, we show that the recent vintage of structural economic models has difficulties replicating the stylized facts we document.
- JEL Code
- C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 2 February 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2011Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit model, to understand how the decisions of rating agencies can be explained by economic developments. The estimated model re-produces historical ratings by using a small number of economic and institutional variables, which seem to effectively summarize the large number of criteria used by Moody
- JEL Code
- C25 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, Discrete Regressors, Proportions
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- 10 August 2016
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 175Details
- Abstract
- This paper revisits the empirical relationship between unemployment and output, and its evolution following the financial crisis of 2008, with the aim of drawing potential consequences for labour market modelling strategies in place within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). First, the negative correlation between output and unemployment (Okun’s law) at cyclical frequencies is found to be a robust feature of macro data across time, countries and identification schemes. Focusing on the euro area, the financial distress seems to have altered the dynamics of output and unemployment mainly at lower frequencies, interpreted as trend developments by the statistical filters used in the analysis. Looking at the implications for modelling strategies, we propose an extension of the standard labour search and matching model in which financial frictions impinge directly on the labour market rather than on the capital market, opening the way to protracted and lagged response of employment after a “financial” crisis. In terms of policy implications, the importance of the interplay between financial and labour market frictions in trend developments should be read as strong support for an ambitious structural reform agenda in Europe, so as to make our labour (and goods) markets more flexible and resilient.
- JEL Code
- E10 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
- 5 January 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1284Details
- Abstract
- A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component, a long-run inflation rate and a trend hours worked component. The short run dynamics is governed by a VAR model including six shocks. The state-space framework is convenient for the decomposition of endogenous variables in trends and cycles, for shock decomposition, for incorporating external judgement, and for running conditional projections. The forecast performance of the model is rather satisfactory. The model is used to carry out a policy experiment with the objective of investigating whether euro area countries differ in the labour market adjustment to a reduction in labour costs. Results suggest that, following the 2008-09 recession, moderate wage growth would significantly help delivering a more job-intense recovery.
- JEL Code
- C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 9 August 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 791Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we propose an extension to New International Macroeconomic framework by introducing the vertical investment margin. The dynamic properties of the extended model are discussed in relation to relevant existing models with particular emphasis on the impact of productivity convergence and effects of timing of trade and financial liberalization on the convergence patterns. We compare the mechanisms behind the three investment margins (horizontal investment to new varieties, vertical investment to quality, and investment to export-eligibility) for the long-run equilibrium. Based on such comparison, the proposed extension proves crucial for consistent explanation of long-term trends in macroeconomic aggregates and the real exchange rate development observed in European transition countries.
- JEL Code
- F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 27 March 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 740Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we present a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model of ex ante unequally developed countries. The model explains a key feature recently observed in transition economies - the long-run trend real exchange rate appreciation - through investments into quality. Our exchange-rate projections bear important policy implications, which we illustrate on the collision between the price and nominal exchange rate criterion for the European Monetary Union in a set of selected transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies