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Franziska Maruhn
Monetary Policy
- Division
Monetary Analysis
- Current Position
-
Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Financial Economics
- Education
- 2016-2020
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Munich
- 2013-2016
M.Sc. Economics, University of Munich
- 2010-2013
B.Sc. Economics, Heidelberg University
- Professional experience
- 2021-
Economist, Directorate General Monetary Policy, European Central Bank
- 2020-2021
Graduate Programme Participant, Directorate General Monetary Policy, European Central Bank
- 2016-2020
Research Assistant, Prof. Gerhard Illing, University of Munich
- Teaching experience
- 2019
Bachelor Tutorial Monetary Economics (for students with Economics minor), Bachelor Seminar Unconventional Monetary Policy, Bachelor Tutorial Macroeconomics 2
- 2018
Bachelor Tutorial Macroeconomics (for students with Economics minor), Bachelor Seminar Unconventional Monetary Policy, Bachelor Tutorial Macroeconomics 2
- 2017
Master Tutorial Monetary Policy, Bachelor Tutorial Macroeconomics 2
- 8 May 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2937Details
- Abstract
- We construct a novel measure of bank performance, investigate its determinants, and show that it affects bank resilience, lending behaviour and real outcomes. Using confidential and granular data, we measure performance against a market-based benchmark portfolio that mimics individual banks’ interest rate and credit risk exposure. From 2015 to mid-2022, euro area banks underperformed market benchmarks by around e160 billion per year, amid substantial heterogeneity. Structural factors, such as cost inefficiencies, rather than monetary or regulatory measures, were the main driver of bank underperformance. We also show that higher edge banks are less reliant on government support measures and less likely to experience the materialisation of interest rate or credit risk when hit by shocks. Using the euro area credit register and the pandemic shock for identification, we find that higher edge banks originate more credit, direct it towards more productive firms, and support more firm investment.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 5 February 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2902Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we build a unique dataset to study how banks decide which firms to lend to and how this decision depends on their own situation and the characteristics of their borrowers. We find that weaker capitalised banks adjust their credit standards more than healthier banks, especially for firms with a higher default risk. We also show how credit standards change in reaction to two specific macroeconomic developments, namely an increase in bank funding costs and a sudden deterioration in banks’ corporate loan portfolios. Here we find that weaker banks respond more forcefully by tightening their credit standards more than better capitalised banks. This development is particularly pronounced when banks are linked to riskier firms. Insofar, we provide evidence of heterogeneity in the bank lending channel, depending on the situation of the lenders and the borrowers.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 12 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the information that the euro area bank lending survey (BLS) provides on future growth in loans to firms and households for house purchase in the euro area. The survey has proved to be invaluable for assessing the passthrough of monetary policy to borrowers via banks, for obtaining early information on turning points in lending conditions, and for understanding changes in loan demand and lending conditions during exceptional periods, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine. First, simple cross-correlations reveal a strong relation between BLS indicators and actual loan growth several quarters ahead. Second, BLS indicators help improve loan forecasts. In terms of loans to firms, the credit standards and loan demand reported in the BLS provide additional information that can be used when forecasting lending, while for housing loans, forecasts are improved by taking into account reported demand in particular. Finally, bank-level data confirm that BLS responses also reveal information on loan developments at the individual bank level. Overall, recent developments regarding BLS credit standards and loan demand point to a deceleration of growth in loans to firms and households in the coming quarters.
- JEL Code
- E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 3 December 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2621Details
- Abstract
- We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. Firms that expect their production to increase (decrease) in the future are 15 percentage points more (less) likely to raise current production and prices, compared to firms that expect no change in production. In a second step, we show that expectations also matter even if they turn out to be incorrect. Lastly, we aggregate expectation errors across firms and find that they account for about 15 percent of aggregate fluctuations.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E71 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 2022
- Journal of the European Economic Association
- 2019
- Journal of Monetary Economics