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Alexander Popov
Research
- Division
Monetary Policy Research
- Current Position
-
Adviser
- Fields of interest
-
Financial Economics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Economic Growth
- Other current responsibilities
- 2022-
CEPR Research Fellow, Monetary Economics and Fluctuations Programme
- 2022-
CEPR Research Fellow, Banking and Corporate Finance Programme
- 2022-
Co-Editor, ECB Blog
- 2021-
Managing Editor, ECB Research Bulletin
- 2019-
Associate Editor, Journal of Banking & Finance
- 2019-
Associate Editor, Journal of Financial Stability
- Education
- 2002-2007
PhD in Economics, University of Chicago
- 2000-2002
MPP in Public Policy, University of Chicago
- 1994-1999
MA in Slavic Studies, University of Sofia
- Professional experience
- 2021-
Adviser, Monetary Policy Research Division
- 2015-2021
Principal Economist, Financial Research Division
- 2013-2015
Senior Economist, Financial Research Division
- 2007-2013
Economist, Financial Research Division
- Awards
- 2016
Pagano-Zechner Prize for the "Best Non-Investment Paper" published in the Review of Finance
- 2014
4th Emerging Markets Finance Conference “Best Paper”
- 2011
BankScope Prize for the "Best Paper in Banking" at the 22nd Australasian Finance and Banking Conference
- Teaching experience
- 2014
Lecturer in Corporate Finance, Tilburg University
- 2007
Lecturer in Econometrics, University of Chicago College
- 26 January 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2893Details
- Abstract
- Using microdata from a U.S. household survey, we document that immigrants who lived through a sovereign default episode are 6% less likely to hold debt relative to otherwise similar immigrants who reside in the same U.S. state and come from the same foreign country but who did not experience a default. Conditional on holding debt, consumers in the former group borrow less and service lower debt burdens. The negative effect on borrowing behavior of having experienced a sovereign default increases with family size and declines with education. These findings highlight the role of personal experience in shaping households’ financial decisions.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G51 : Financial Economics
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
- 7 March 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2793Details
- Abstract
- Climate change and the public policies to arrest it are and will continue reshaping the global economy. This Discussion Paper draws on economic research to identify some key medium- and long-run economic implications of these developments. It explores implications for growth, innovation, inflation, financial markets, fiscal policy, and several socio-economic outcomes. The main message that emerges is that climate change will cause income divergence across individuals, sectors, and regions, adjustment in energy markets, increased inflation variability, financial markets stress, intensified innovation, increased migration, and rising public debt. These challenges appear manageable for EU member states, especially under an early and orderly transition scenario. At the same time, the direction, scope, and speed of economic transformation is subject to large uncertainty due to two separate factors: the wide range of climate scenarios for a given trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and the exact policy path governments choose, especially in the context of the ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine.
- JEL Code
- D6 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
F2 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
O1 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics - Network
- Discussion papers
- 7 March 2023
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 22Details
- Abstract
- Climate change and the public policies to arrest it are and will continue reshaping the global economy. This Discussion Paper draws on economic research to identify some key medium- and long-run economic implications of these developments. It explores implications for growth, innovation, inflation, financial markets, fiscal policy, and several socio-economic outcomes. The main message that emerges is that climate change will cause income divergence across individuals, sectors, and regions, adjustment in energy markets, increased inflation variability, financial markets stress, intensified innovation, increased migration, and rising public debt. These challenges appear manageable for EU member states, especially under an early and orderly transition scenario. At the same time, the direction, scope, and speed of economic transformation is subject to large uncertainty due to two separate factors: the wide range of climate scenarios for a given trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and the exact policy path governments choose, especially in the context of the ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine.
- JEL Code
- D6 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
F2 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
O1 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
- 9 February 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2778Details
- Abstract
- We study how monetary policy affects local market competition in a union of countries ex-periencing different economic conditions: the euro area. We find that when monetary conditions tighten (loosen), from the point of view of an individual economy, market concentration increases (declines). This effect is more pronounced when interest rates have been low-for-long, and it is stronger in sectors that are relatively more sensitive to changes in financing conditions. The underlying mechanism is a decline (increase) in short-term debt and investment by smaller and medium-size firms, relative to large firms, following monetary policy tightening (easing).
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 21 December 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2762Details
- Abstract
- Using data on syndicated loans, we find that the introduction of a carbon tax is associated with an increase in domestic banks’ lending to coal, oil, and gas companies in foreign countries. This effect is particularly pronounced for banks with large prior fossil-lending exposures, suggesting a role for bank specialization. Lending to private companies in foreign markets increases relatively more, which points to an intensification of banks’ incentives to avoid public scrutiny. We also find that banks reallocate a relatively larger share of their fossil loan portfolio to countries with less strict environ-mental regulation and bank supervision.
- JEL Code
- F3 : International Economics→International Finance
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
- 15 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOGRelated
- 9 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 2 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 7 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 18 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 12 August 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2709Details
- Abstract
- Between 2000 and 2007, the gender gap in earnings in the US real estate sector increased, especially in local markets where house prices appreciated relatively more. Firm frictions and the presence of small children in the household do not explain the widening of the gender gap, while sorting on entry and gender identity in relative income do. First, the industry attracted relatively more females with no prior experience, especially in booming local housing markets. Second, labor supply increased relatively more for experienced males with at least some college education who earn less than their spouses.
- JEL Code
- J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
L85 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Real Estate Services
O18 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis, Housing, Infrastructure
- 26 July 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2686Details
- Abstract
- Fulfilling the commitments embedded in the Paris Agreement requires a climate-technologyrevolution. Patented innovation of low-carbon technologies is lower in the EU than in selectedpeers, and very heterogeneous across member states. We motivate this fact with anendogenous model of directed technical change with government policy and financialmarkets. Variations in carbon taxes, R&D investment, and venture capital investment explaina large share of the variation in green patents per capita in the data. We discuss implicationsfor policy, concluding that governments can play a catalytic role in stimulating greeninnovation while the role of central banks is limited.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
O4 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics - Network
- Discussion papers
- 26 July 2022
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 19Details
- Abstract
- Fulfilling the commitments embedded in the Paris Agreement requires a climate-technologyrevolution. Patented innovation of low-carbon technologies is lower in the EU than in selectedpeers, and very heterogeneous across member states. We motivate this fact with anendogenous model of directed technical change with government policy and financialmarkets. Variations in carbon taxes, R&D investment, and venture capital investment explaina large share of the variation in green patents per capita in the data. We discuss implicationsfor policy, concluding that governments can play a catalytic role in stimulating greeninnovation while the role of central banks is limited.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
O4 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
- 25 November 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2615Details
- Abstract
- To what extent can Quantitative Easing impact productivity growth? We document a strong and heterogeneous response of corporate R&D investment to changes in debt financing conditions induced by corporate debt purchases under the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Program. Companies eligible for the program increase significantly their investment in R&D, relative to similar ineligible companies operating in the same country and sector. The evidence further suggests that by subsidizing the cost of debt, corporate bond purchases by the central bank stimulate innovation through a wealth transfer to innovative companies with low debt levels, rather than by supporting credit constrained firms.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
O3 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 6 October 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2598Details
- Abstract
- We study the transmission of (unconventional) monetary policy to the real sector when firm decisions depend on both current and future credit market conditions. For a given level of current credit access, investment and employment increases more at firms expecting bank credit to improve in the future. Three separate unconventional policies by the ECB—the OMT, the introduction of negative rates, and the CSPP—improved expectations of future credit access for SMEs borrowing from banks that were expected to increase SME lending due to the policy. Our results enhance our understanding of the bank balance sheet channel of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 271Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area. It first investigates macroeconomic and financial risks stemming from climate change and from policies aimed at climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as the regulatory and fiscal effects of reducing carbon emissions. In this context, it assesses the need to adapt macroeconomic models and the Eurosystem/ECB staff economic projections underlying the monetary policy decisions. It further considers the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy, in particular the implications for the transmission of monetary policy, the natural rate of interest and the correct identification of shocks. Model simulations using the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) illustrate how the interactions of climate change, financial and fiscal fragilities could significantly restrict the ability of monetary policy to respond to standard business cycle fluctuations. The paper concludes with an analysis of a set of potential monetary policy measures to address climate risks, insofar as they are in line with the ECB’s mandate.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 20 February 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2377Details
- Abstract
- The response of major central banks to the global financial crisis has revived the debate around the interactions between monetary policy (MP) and bank stability. This technical paper sheds light, quantitatively, on the different mechanisms underlying the relationship between MP and bank stability. It does so by reviewing microeconometric studies from the academic literature as well as those conducted internally at the ECB. The paper proceeds chronologically, using the recent crisis as a touchstone. First, it provides a brief overview of the main theoretical channels linking bank stability and the transmission of MP. It then analyses the evidence from the pre-crisis period in the light of the structural trends leading up to the crisis. As the crisis erupted, unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures were deployed, and the paper suggests that these were essential to buttress bank stability and halt a systemic crisis. At the same time, these measures involved trade-offs, and the adverse spillovers on banks’ intermediation capacity and risk-taking require close monitoring. The paper ends by offering a critical review of the methodologies employed and suggestions for the areas where analytical efforts should be focussed in the future.
- JEL Code
- E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 27 November 2019
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 64Details
- Abstract
- This article provides evidence that economies receiving more funding from stock markets than credit markets generate fewer carbon emissions. Increasing the equity financing share to one-half globally would reduce aggregate per capita emissions by about one-quarter of the Paris Agreement commitment. Our findings call for supporting equity-based initiatives rather than policies aimed at decarbonising the European economy through the banking sector.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
O4 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
- 26 September 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2318Details
- Abstract
- We study the relation between the structure of financial systems and carbon emissions in a large panel of countries and industries over the period 1990-2013. We find that for given levels of economic and financial development and environmental regulation, CO2 emissions per capita are lower in economies that are relatively more equity-funded. Industry-level analysis reveals two distinct channels. First, stock markets reallocate investment towards less polluting sectors. Second, they also push carbon-intensive sectors to develop and implement greener technologies. In line with this second effect, we show that carbon-intensive sectors produce more green patents as stock markets deepen. We also document an increase in carbon emissions associated with the production of imported goods equal to around one-tenth of the reduction in domestic carbon emissions.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
O4 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
- 10 December 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2213Details
- Abstract
- Using a pan-European dataset of 8.5 million firms, we find that firms with high debt overhang invest relatively more than otherwise similar firms if they are operating in sectors facing good global growth opportunities. At the same time, the positive impact of a marginal increase in debt on investment efficiency disappears if firm debt is already excessive, if it is dominated by short maturities, and during systemic banking crises. Our results are consistent with theories of the disciplining role of debt, as well as with models highlighting the negative link between agency problems at firms and banks and investment efficiency.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 14 November 2018
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 52Details
- Abstract
- How beneficial is labour market flexibility ¬– for instance, the ability to hire and fire workers – for firm growth? And how does such flexibility interact with a firm’s ability to obtain bank credit? This article provides evidence that less rigid employment protection benefits firms during times of scarce credit. We study the performance of credit constrained Spanish firms during the financial crisis of 2008-09, exploiting a firm-size-specific labour regulation that imposes more stringent employment protection on firms with more than 50 employees. We find that Spanish firms with fewer than 50 employees operating in sectors in which labour and capital are close substitutes grew faster during the financial crisis when exposed to a negative credit shock than similarly credit constrained but larger firms. This effect is more pronounced for firms that were more productive before the crisis, suggesting that flexible employment protection laws benefit otherwise healthy firms that are credit constrained, by enabling them to substitute labour for capital and continue growing.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J80 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor Standards: National and International→General
D20 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→General
- 24 September 2018
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 7Details
- Abstract
- This paper identifies the various channels that give rise to a "sovereign-bank nexus" whereby the financial health of banks and sovereigns is intertwined. We find that banks and sovereigns are linked by three interacting channels: banks hold large amounts of sovereign debt; banks are protected by government guarantees; and the health of banks and governments affect and is affected by economic activity. Evidence suggests that all three channels are relevant. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 24 September 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2177Details
- Abstract
- This paper identifies the various channels that give rise to a “sovereign-bank nexus” whereby the financial health of banks and sovereigns is intertwined. We find that banks and sovereigns are linked by three interacting channels: banks hold large amounts of sovereign debt; banks are protected by government guarantees; and the health of banks and governments affect and is affected by economic activity. Evidence suggests that all three channels are relevant. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages - Network
- Discussion papers
- 3 July 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2166Details
- Abstract
- We offer new evidence on the real effects of credit shocks in the presence of employment protection regulations by exploiting a unique provision in Spanish labor laws: dismissal rules are less stringent for Spanish firms with fewer than 50 employees, lowering the cost of hiring new workers. Using a new dataset, we find that during the financial crisis, healthy firms with fewer than 50 employees borrowing from troubled banks grew faster in sectors where capital and labor were sufficiently substitutable. This result does not obtain when we use a different cut-off for Spain or the same cut-off for firms in Germany. Our evidence suggests that labor market flexibility can dampen the negative effect of credit shocks by allowing firms to keep growing by substituting labor for capital.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J80 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor Standards: National and International→General
D20 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→General
- 10 May 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018Details
- Abstract
- This article discusses the concept of risk sharing, which generally refers to the notion that economic agents, such as households and firms, attempt to insure their consumption streams against fluctuations in the business cycle of their country, i.e. they try to “smooth out” changes in their consumption resulting from economic shocks. The article then considers what proportion of an economic shock in the euro area can be smoothed, and compares this with the situation in the United States. While a comparison of the degree of risk sharing between the euro area and the United States needs to be seen against the background of different institutional and political architectures, it nevertheless offers potentially interesting economic insights. The article shows that, while in the euro area around 80% of a shock to GDP growth in a given country remained unsmoothed over the period 1999-2016, thus resulting in sizeable differences in consumption growth across countries, in the United States at most 40% of a shock to state-specific GDP was unsmoothed over the same period. The article also evaluates the relative importance of the main risk sharing channels, i.e. the credit, capital and fiscal channels, as well as the role of European institutions. It shows that, in the euro area, risk sharing takes place mainly via the capital channel, i.e. through cross-border holdings of financial assets. Finally, the article puts the empirical results into the perspective of the ongoing debate on enhancing the institutional architecture of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). It calls for euro area countries to make their economies, banking sectors and public finances less vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. The article explains how efficient and integrated financial markets are a core prerequisite for effective private risk sharing in the euro area. It also shows how the euro area would benefit from a central fiscal stabilisation function to support national economic stabilisers in the presence of large economic shocks and thereby make EMU more resilient.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- 27 April 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2146Details
- Abstract
- We exploit election-driven turnover in State and local governments in Germany to study how banks adjust their securities portfolios in response to the loss of political connections. We find that local savings banks, which are owned by their host county and supervised by local politicians, increase significantly their holdings of home-State sovereign bonds when the local government and the State government are dominated by different political parties. Banks’ holdings of other securities, like federal bonds, bonds issued by other States, or stocks, are not affected by election outcomes. We argue that banks use sub-sovereign bond purchases to gain access to politically distant government authorities.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
P16 : Economic Systems→Capitalist Systems→Political Economy
- 11 January 2018
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 42Details
- Abstract
- This article shows that German savings banks appear to increase their holdings of bonds issued by their respective Bundesland (federal state) government if as a result of an election, the local governments at Bundesland and at Kreis (county) level are no longer dominated by the same party. This behaviour is not consistent with other known reasons why banks hold government debt, such as compliance with regulation, the tendency to accumulate risky assets when close to bankruptcy, or political pressure. Instead, we argue that in the wake of a post-election loss of political connections along party lines, local government-owned banks use purchases of sub-sovereign bonds to keep communication channels with state politicians open, a mechanism akin to lobbying.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
P16 : Economic Systems→Capitalist Systems→Political Economy
- 6 December 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2115Details
- Abstract
- This paper reviews and appraises the body of empirical research on the association between financial markets and economic growth that has accumulated over the past quarter-century. The bulk of the historical evidence suggests that financial development affects economic growth in a positive, monotonic way, yet recent research endeavors have provided useful and important qualifications of this conventional wisdom. Moreover, the proliferation of micro-level datasets has enabled researchers to study more precise links between theory and measurement. The paper highlights the mechanisms through which financial markets benefit society, as well as the channels through which finance can slow down long-term growth.
- JEL Code
- O4 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
- 12 July 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2086Details
- Abstract
- We exploit the exogenous variation in regional credit market contestability brought on by banking deregulation in the United States to study the narrowing of the gender gap in local labor markets. We find that deregulation reduced the gender gap in labor force participation, as the subsequent increase in the demand for labor induced non-working women to enter the labor force. Deregulation also reduced wage inequality as women became more likely to work in the private sector, to enter high-paid "male" jobs, and to acquire higher education. Tests of contiguous MSAs sharing a state border corroborate a genuine deregulation effect.
- JEL Code
- G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
- 13 July 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1937Details
- Abstract
- Using proprietary data on banks
- JEL Code
- F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 25 May 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1910Details
- Abstract
- We exploit regional variations in house price fluctuations in the United States during the early to mid-2000s to study the impact of the housing boom on young Americans' choices related to home ownership, household formation, and fertility. We also introduce a novel instrument for changes in house prices based on the predetermined industrial structure of the local economy. We find that in MSAs which experienced large increases in house prices between 2001 and 2006, the youngest households were substantially less likely to purchase residential property, to be married, and to have a child, both in 2006 and in 2011.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J10 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→General
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
- 20 April 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1892Details
- Abstract
- We exploit regional variation in US house price fluctuations during the boom-bust cycle of the 2000s to study the impact of the housing cycle on young Americans' choices related to education and employment. We find that in MSAs which experienced large increases in house prices between 2001 and 2006, young adults were substantially more likely to forego a higher education and join the workforce, lowering skill formation. During the bust years, the young, especially those without higher education, were more likely to be unemployed in areas which experienced higher declines in house prices.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J10 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→General
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
- 7 July 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1822Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the causal effect of gender bias on access to bank credit. We extract an exogenous measure of gender bias from survey responses by descendants of US immigrants on questions about the role of women in society. We then use data on 6,000 small business firms from 17 countries and find that in countries with higher gender bias, female-owned firms are more frequently discouraged from applying for bank credit and more likely to rely on informal finance. At the same time, loan rejection rates and terms on granted loans do not vary between male and female firm owners. These results are not driven by credit risk differences between female- and male-owned firms or by any idiosyncrasies in the set of countries in our sample. Overall, the evidence suggests that in high-gender bias countries, female entrepreneurs are more likely to opt out of the loan application process, even though banks do not appear to discriminate against females that apply for credit.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
N32 : Economic History→Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy→U.S., Canada: 1913-
Z13 : Other Special Topics→Cultural Economics, Economic Sociology, Economic Anthropology→Economic Sociology, Economic Anthropology, Social and Economic Stratification
- 26 June 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1821Details
- Abstract
- This paper identifies the effect of financing constraints on firms
- JEL Code
- D92 : Microeconomics→Intertemporal Choice→Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
- 26 June 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1820Details
- Abstract
- We investigate the effect of sovereign stress and of unconventional monetary policy on small firms
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 6 November 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1606Details
- Abstract
- Using a unique survey database of 8265 firms from 25 transition economies, I find that lack of access to finance in general, and to bank credit in particular, is associated with significantly lower investment in on-the-job training. This effect is stronger in education-intensive industries and in industries facing good global growth opportunities. To address endogeneity issues, I use the structure of local credit markets as an instrument for credit constraints at the firm-level. In addition, in panel estimates, I control for the presence of unobserved firm-level heterogeneity, as well as for changes in macroeconomic conditions.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
M53 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Personnel Economics→Training
- 24 September 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1593Details
- Abstract
- This paper conducts the first empirical study of the bank balance sheet channel using data on discouraged and informally rejected firms in addition to information on the formal loan granting process. I take advantage of a unique survey data on the credit experience of firms in 8 economies that use the euro or are pegged to it over 2004-2007, and analyze the effect of monetary policy and the business cycle on bank lending and risk-taking. Identification rests on exploiting 1) the exogeneity of monetary policy to local business cycles, and 2) firm-level and bank-level data to separate the supply of credit from changes in the level and composition of credit demand. Consistent with previous studies, I find that lax monetary conditions increase bank credit in general and bank credit to ex-ante risky firms in particular, especially for banks with lower capital ratios. Importantly, I find that the results are considerably stronger when data on informal credit constraints are incorporated.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 10 May 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1544Details
- Abstract
- How does home ownership affect new business creation? We develop a model of career choice in the presence of liquidity constraints in which shocks to the value of real estate affect the propensity of potential entrepreneurs to borrow against the value of their property. Using a large US individual-level survey dataset over the 1996-2006 period, we show that a 10% increase in home equity raises the probability of transition into entrepreneurship by up to 14%. Our results persist when we use the topological elasticity of housing supply to generate variation in home equity that is orthogonal to entrepreneurial choice.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
L26 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Entrepreneurship
- 5 November 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1488Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides the first empirical evidence that bank regulation is associated with cross-border spillover effects through the lending activities of large multinational banks. We analyze business lending by 155 banks to 9613 firms in 1976 different localities across 16 countries. We find that lower barriers to entry, tighter restrictions on bank activities, and higher minimum capital requirements in domestic markets are associated with lower bank lending standards abroad. The effects are stronger when banks are less efficiently supervised at home, and are observed to exist independently from the impact of host-country regulation.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network
- 3 February 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1421Details
- Abstract
- Based on survey data covering 8,387 firms in 20 countries we compare credit demand and credit supply for firms in Eastern Europe to those for firms in selected Western European countries. We find that firms in Eastern Europe have a higher need for credit than firms in Western Europe, and that a higher share of firms is discouraged from applying for a loan. The higher rate of discouraged firms in Eastern Europe is driven more by the presence of foreign banks than by the macroeconomic environment or the lack of creditor protection. We find no evidence that foreign bank presence leads to stricter loan approval decisions. Finally, credit constraints do have a real cost in that firms which are denied credit or discouraged from applying are less likely to invest in R&D and introduce new products.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
- 22 August 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1368Details
- Abstract
- I analyze output growth, volatility, and skewness as the joint outcomes of financial openness. Using an industry panel of 53 countries over 45 years, I find that financial openness increases simultaneously mean growth and the negative skewness of the growth process. The increase in output skewness appears to come from a more negatively skewed distribution of investment, TFP, and new business creation. The growth benefits of financial liberalization are augmented, and its costs associated with higher probability of rare large contractions are mitigated by deep credit markets and by strong institutions. The main result of the paper holds in aggregated data.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 21 October 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1259Details
- Abstract
- We study how financial market efficiency affects a measure of diversification of output across industrial sectors borrowed from the portfolio allocation literature. Using data on sector-level value added for a wide cross section of countries and for various levels of disaggregation, we construct a benchmark measure of diversification as the set of allocations of aggregate output across industrial sectors which minimize the economy’s long-term volatility for a given level of long-term growth. We find that financial markets increase substantially the speed with which the observed sectoral allocation of output converges towards the optimally diversified benchmark. Convergence to the optimal shares of aggregate output is relatively faster for sectors that have a higher "natural" long-term risk-adjusted growth and which exhibit higher information frictions. Our results are robust to using various proxies for financial development, to accounting for the endogeneity of finance, and to controlling for investor’s protection, contract enforcement, and barriers to entry. Crucially, the observed patterns disappear when we employ "naive" measures of diversification based on the equal spreading of output across sectors.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
- 1 October 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1252Details
- Abstract
- We study the effect of interbank market integration on small firm finance in the build-up to the 2007-2008 financial crisis. We use a comprehensive data set that contains contract terms on individual loans to 6,047 firms across 14 European countries between 1998:01 and 2005:12. We account for the selection that arises in the loan request and approval process. Our findings imply that integration of interbank markets resulted in less stringent borrowing constraints and in substantially lower loan rates. The decrease was strongest in markets with competitive banking sectors. We also find that in the most rapidly integrating markets, firms became substantially overleveraged during the build-up to the crisis.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G34 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Mergers, Acquisitions, Restructuring, Corporate Governance
- 4 June 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1203Details
- Abstract
- We study the effect of financial distress in foreign parent banks on local SME financing in 14 central and eastern European countries during the early stages of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. We use survey data on applicant and non-applicant firms that enable us to disentangle effects driven by shocks to the banking system from recession-driven demand shocks that may vary across lenders. We find strong evidence that credit tightened in the relatively early stages of the crises caused by the following types of bank financial distress: 1) low equity ratio; 2) low Tier 1 capital ratio; and 3) losses on financial assets. We also find that foreign banks transmit to Main Street a larger portion of similar financial shocks than domestic banks. The observed decline in credit is greater among high-risk firms and firms with fewer tangible assets.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 3 December 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1121Details
- Abstract
- We study the relative effect of venture capital and bank finance on large manufacturing firms in local U.S. markets. Theory predicts that with venture capital, the firm size distribution should become more stretched-out to the right, but it’s ambiguous on the effect of banks on large firms. The empirical evidence suggests that while the average size of firms in the top bin of the firm size distribution has remained unaffected by banking sector developments, it has increased with venture capital investment. We argue that this is due to the emergence of new corporate giants rather than the growth of existing ones.
- JEL Code
- G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
- 6 August 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1078Details
- Abstract
- Using a comprehensive database of European firms, we study how private equity affects the rate of firm entry. We find that private equity investment benefits new business incorporation, especially in industries with naturally higher entry rates and R&D intensity. A two standard deviation increase in private equity investment explains as much as 5.5% of the variation in entry between high-entry and low-entry industries. We address endogeneity by exploiting data on laws that regulate private equity investments by pension funds. Our results hold when we correct for barriers to entry, general access to credit, protection of intellectual property, and labour regulations.
- JEL Code
- G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
L26 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Entrepreneurship
M13 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Business Administration→New Firms, Startups
- 17 June 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1063Details
- Abstract
- We provide the first cross-country evidence of the effect of investment by private equity firms on innovation, focusing on a sample of European countries and using Kortum and Lerner's (2000) empirical methodology. Using an 18-country panel covering the period 1991-2004, we study how private equity finance affects patent applications and patent grants. We address concerns about causality in several ways, including exploiting variation in laws regulating the investment behaviour of pension funds and insurance companies across countries and over time. We also control for the standard determinants of innovation like R&D, human capital, and patent protection. Our estimates imply that while private equity investment accounts for 8% of aggregate (private equity plus R&D) industrial spending, PE accounts for as much as 12% of industrial innovation. We also present similar evidence from the biotech industry to alleviate concerns that our results are biased by aggregation.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
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- World Bank Publications, World BankDoes Private Sector Participation Improve Performance in Electricity and Water Distribution?