Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2023

Registration and coffee

Welcome and opening remarks

Isabel Schnabel, European Central Bank

Session 1: Phillips Curve

Chair: Sarah Holton, European Central Bank

Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle

• Giovanni Nicolò*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
• Francesco Bianchi, Johns Hopkins University
• Dongho Song, Johns Hopkins University

Discussant: Marta Bańbura, European Central Bank

It’s Baaack: The Inflation Surge of 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve

• Gauti B. Eggertsson*, Brown University

• Pierpaolo Benigno, Universität Bern
  

Discussant: Antonella Trigari, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi

Anatomy of the Phillips Curve: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications

• Luca Gagliardone*, New York University

• Mark Gertler, New York University

• Simone Lenzu, New York University

• Joris Tielens, Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique

Discussant: Jonathon Hazell, London School of Economics and Political Science

Break

Keynote speech: The Market for Inflation Risk

Chair: Óscar Arce, European Central Bank

Ricardo Reis, London School of Economics and Political Science

Lunch break and Poster session 1

The Expectation of Others

• Mathieu Pedemonte*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
• Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• John Leer, Morning Consult
• Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University

Consumption Categories, Household Attention, and Inflation Expectations: Implications for Optimal Monetary Policy

Alexander Dietrich*, Danmarks Nationalbank

Building Central Bank Credibility: The Role of Forecast Performance

• Michael McMahon, University of Oxford

Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees

• Sebastian Link*, ifo Institute and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
• Lukas Buchheim, Technische Universität Dortmund
• Sascha Möhrle, ifo Institute and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data

• Edward S. Knotek II*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Keshav Dogra, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Sebastian Heise, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
• Robert W. Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Raphael S. Schoenle, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Wändi Bruine de Bruin, University of Southern California

Session 2: Inflation Effects of Supply Disruptions

Chair: Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 

The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruption on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Evidence

• Yiliang Li*, University of International Business and Economics
• Xiwen Bai, Tsinghua University
• Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, University of Pennsylvania
• Francesco Zanetti, University of Oxford

Discussant: Frank Smets, European Central Bank

Global Supply Chain Pressures, Inflation, and Implications for Monetary Policy

• Dennis Bonam*, De Nederlandsche Bank
• Guido Ascari, De Nederlandsche Bank and Università degli Studi di Pavia
• Andra Smadu, De Nederlandsche Bank

Discussant: Elena Bobeica, European Central Bank

Break

Session 3: Multisector Models and Inflation after COVID-19

Chair: Peter Karadi, European Central Bank

Inflation Strikes Back: The Role of Import Competition and the Labor Market

• Sebastian Heise*, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Mary Amiti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Fatih Karahan, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Ayşegül Şahin, University of Texas at Austin

Discussant Ekaterina Peneva, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

What Drives Inflation? Lessons from Disaggregated Price Data

Elisa Rubbo*, University of Chicago

Discussant: Mishel Ghassibe, Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREi) and Barcelona School of Economics

End of first conference day

Registration and coffee

Session 4: Inflation and Price Dispersion

Chair: Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank

Expected Inflation and Welfare: The Role of Consumer Search

Discussant: Gaetano Gaballo, École des hautes études commerciales de Paris

Inflation Distorts Relative Prices: Theory and Evidence

• Henning Weber*, Deutsche Bundesbank
• Klaus Adam, University of Mannheim
• Andrey Alexandrov, Princeton University

Discussant: Viacheslav Sheremirov, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Poster session 2

Striking a Bargain: Narrative Identification of Wage Bargaining Shock

• Žymantas Budrys*, Center for Excellence in Finance and Economic Research (CEFER), Bank of Lithuania and Vilnius University
• Mario Porqueddu, European Central Bank
• Andrej Sokol, Bloomberg LP

Feeling the Heat: Extreme Temperatures and Price Stability

• Miles Parker*, European Central Bank
• Donata Faccia, European Central Bank
• Livio Stracca, European Central Bank

Firming up Price Inflation

• Lena Anayi*, Bank of England
• Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
• Philip Bunn, Bank of England
• Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham
• Gregory Thwaites, University of Nottingham
• Ivan Yotzov, Bank of England 

Matching Price Stickiness and MPC: Monetary Policy Implications

• Ting Lan, International Monetary Fund
• Lerong Li, University of International Business and Economics
  
• Minghao Li*, Peking University
  

Euro Area Inflation and a New Measure of Core Inflation

Claudio Morana*, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, CefES, RCEA-Europe ETS, CeRP at the Collegio Carlo Alberto

Nowcasting Consumer Price Inflation Using High-Frequency (Scanner Data): Evidence from Germany

• Elisabeth Wieland*, Deutsche Bundesbank
• Günter W. Beck, Universität Siegen
• Kai Carstensen, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
• Jan-Oliver Menz, Deutsche Bundesbank
• Richard Schnorrenberger, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel

The Asymmetric Effects of Weather Shocks on Euro Area Inflation

• Catalina Martinez Hernandez*, European Central Bank
• Matteo Ciccarelli, European Central Bank
• Friderike Kuik, European Central Bank

Lunch break

Session 5: Expectations

Chair: Edward S. Knotek II, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

House Price Expectations and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data Inflation Expectations and Macro Dynamics under Finite Horizon Planning

• Roshni Tara*, University of Surrey
• Vedanta Dhamija, University of Surrey
• Ricardo Nunes, University of Surrey

Discussant: Francesca Monti, Université catholique de Louvain

Inflation Expectations and Macro Dynamics under Finite Horizon Planning

• Edward Herbst*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
• Christopher Gust, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
• David Lopez-Salido, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Discussant: Stéphane Dupraz, Banque de France

Looking through Supply Shocks versus Controlling Inflation: Understanding the Central Bank Dilemma

• Thomas Carter*, Bank of Canada
• Paul Beaudry, Bank of Canada and University of British Columbia
• Amartya Lahiri, University of British Columbia

Discussant: Jane Ryngaert, University of Notre Dame

Closing remarks

Loretta J. Mester, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

End of conference