Resilience to global headwinds? CESEE responses to a changing trade and financial landscape

Welcome address

Mario Draghi, President, European Central Bank

Keynote speech

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Session 1 Responses to trade shocks

Chair: Luis de Guindos, Vice-President, European Central Bank

The global trade landscape has been changing, with rising protectionist pressures: What are the implications for CESEE countries, where export-led growth has often been supported by increasing globalisation and involvement in global value chains (GVCs)? How similar or dissimilar are these economies in terms of their global and regional trade integration, their GVC participation, and the importance of trade for their growth models? What role does EU/euro area membership play? Are CESEE countries adjusting to the new developments? What could be the main changes in their trade models? Are they becoming less dependent on parent companies and global shocks? How are local suppliers performing? Is there scope for more trade integration at the regional level? What could be the potential impact of protectionism on confidence, welfare, productivity and competitiveness in the region? What are the main comparative advantages of the region? What are the resulting policy challenges and which measures and reforms should be adopted?

Keynote speech

Marco Buti, Director-General, DG ECFIN, European Commission Presentation

Panel discussion

• Boštjan Vasle, Governor, Banka Slovenije Presentation
• Anita Angelovska-Bezhoska, Governor, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia
• Debora Revoltella, Director Economics Department, European Investment Bank Presentation
• Sergei Guriev, Chief Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

Open floor discussion

Buffet lunch

Session 2 Responses to monetary policy and financial shocks

Chair: Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

The global financial landscape is changing, and financial conditions have tightened:
How is the path towards normalisation of the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve System and, prospectively, the European Central Bank (ECB) influencing financial conditions and monetary policies in the CESEE countries? What have been the major spillovers from changing global financial conditions? How have they differed depending on the different monetary policy frameworks and exchange rate regimes in place? Is there any dissimilarity, in terms of impact on the region, between the policies of the Federal Reserve System and the ECB? What is the impact on capital flows to the region? What are the potential implications for economic growth and for the paths towards euro adoption? What are the prospects for further financial development in the region? What are the resulting policy challenges and what options do CESEE countries have in order to address them?

Keynote speakers

• Laurence Boone, Chief Economist, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Presentation
• Dubravko Mihaljek, Head of Operations Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements Presentation

Panel discussion

• Mugur Constantin Isărescu, Governor, Banca Naţională a României Speech
• Dimitar Radev, Governor, Българска народна банка (Bulgarian National Bank) Presentation
• Gallina A. Vincelette, Practice Manager, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment for Europe and Central Asia, World Bank Background material
• Nadeem Ilahi, Senior Regional Resident Representative, Central and Eastern Europe, International Monetary Fund Presentation

Open floor discussion