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2010 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

	2010	2011	Dec. 2010	Dec. 2011	2014
Mean point estimate	1.3	1.5	1.4	1.6	1.9
Standard deviation	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.2
Number of replies	61	58	53	50	51
Probability distributions	2010	2011	Dec. 2010	Dec. 2011	2014
<-1.0%	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2
-1.0 to -0.6%	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.3
-0.5 to -0.1%	1.1	1.5	1.7	1.7	0.9
0.0 to 0.4%	6.8	6.3	7.3	5.1	2.7
0.5 to 0.9%	22.0	14.4	14.8	11.2	6.6
1.0 to 1.4%	38.6	24.1	27.0	23.1	15.0
1.5 to 1.9%	22.4	30.1	28.6	27.8	30.3
2.0 to 2.4%	6.7	15.4	13.6	20.0	26.2
2.5 to 2.9%	1.7	5.0	4.7	7.1	11.3
3.0 to 3.4%	0.3	1.9	1.5	2.1	4.5
3.5 to 3.9%	0.1	0.7	0.4	1.0	1.6
>4.0%	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

	2010	2011	2010 Q3	2011 Q3	2014
Mean point estimate	1.2	1.6	1.2	1.6	1.8
Standard deviation	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.3
Number of replies	61	58	50	49	49
Probability distributions	2010	2011	2010 Q3	2011 Q3	2014
<-1.0%	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.3
-1.0 to -0.6%	1.0	1.0	1.9	1.0	0.9
-0.5 to -0.1%	3.4	2.4	3.9	2.8	1.9
0.0 to 0.4%	10.1	5.4	10.2	5.7	4.2
0.5 to 0.9%	22.5	13.5	20.2	12.4	8.8
1.0 to 1.4%	32.2	24.7	26.5	23.5	17.5
1.5 to 1.9%	20.2	27.3	22.0	25.3	27.5
2.0 to 2.4%	7.0	16.7	10.6	18.5	22.8
2.5 to 2.9%	2.2	5.6	3.2	7.3	9.8
3.0 to 3.4%	0.6	1.9	0.7	2.0	3.8
3.5 to 3.9%	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.7	1.8
>4.0%	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

	2010	2011	Nov. 2010	Nov. 2011	2014
Mean point estimate	10.5	10.5	10.7	10.4	8.6
Standard deviation	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.8
Number of replies	60	58	49	47	47
Probability distributions	2010	2011	Nov. 2010	Nov. 2011	2014
<6.5%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8
6.5 to 6.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	4.3
7.0 to 7.4%	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	7.0
7.5 to 7.9%	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.3	13.9
8.0 to 8.4%	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.7	17.6
8.5 to 8.9%	0.5	1.1	0.6	2.2	16.2
9.0 to 9.4%	1.6	5.0	2.0	6.7	14.8
9.5 to 9.9%	10.4	14.5	8.9	16.5	11.4
10.0 to 10.4%	32.1	25.1	25.6	27.0	6.7
10.5 to 10.9%	31.9	25.4	30.6	20.7	3.4
11.0 to 11.4%	15.7	15.9	19.5	12.1	1.3
11.5 to 11.9%	5.5	8.0	7.7	6.9	0.8
12.0 to 12.4%	1.7	3.3	2.8	3.3	0.5
12.5 to 12.9%	0.5	1.0	1.3	1.7	0.1
13.0 to 13.4%	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.1	0.1
13.5 to 13.9%	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.0
14.0 to 14.4%	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0
14.5 to 14.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
>15.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Honlapunkon sütiket (cookies) használunk

Funkcionális sütiket használunk a felhasználói preferenciák tárolására, analitikai sütiket a honlap teljesítményének javítására, valamint alkalmazunk még külső szolgáltatók által a honlapba integrált sütiket.

Felhasználóink döntenek, hogy elfogadják vagy elutasítják őket. Bővebb tájékoztatásért, a sütikkel kapcsolatos preferenciák és szervernaplók áttekintéséért látogasson el az alábbi oldalakra: