Michael Scharnagl
- 9 January 2018
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 205Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the cyclical properties of real GDP, house prices, credit, and nominal liquid financial assets in 17 EU countries, by applying several methods to extract cycles. The estimates confirm earlier findings of large medium-term cycles in credit volumes and house prices. GDP appears to be subject to fluctuations at both business-cycle and medium-term frequencies, and GDP fluctuations at medium-term frequencies are strongly correlated with cycles in credit and house prices. Cycles in equity prices and long-term interest rates are considerably shorter than those in credit and house prices and have little in common with the latter. Credit and house price cycles are weakly synchronous across countries and their volatilities vary widely – these differences may be related to the structural properties of housing and mortgage markets. Finally, DSGE models can replicate the volatility of cycles in house and equity prices, but not the persistence of house price cycles.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 14 June 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1355Details
- Abstract
- Based on a Financial Almost Ideal Demand System (FAIDS), this paper investigates the wealth structure of German households. The long-run wealth elasticities and interestrate elasticities were calculated using a unique new quarterly financial accounts macrodata set which covers the period from 1959 to 2009 and contains a portfolio of eight different financial assets. Descriptive analysis shows that all financial assets were characterized by substantial volatility of their weight in the portfolio of households. We found that portfolio shifts in the long run are determined significantly by changes in interest rates. The estimated model provides evidence that currency (and transferable deposits) is mainly a substitute for other assets and time deposits are typically a complement. Wealth elasticity is for most assets around unity.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes