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Joint BIS, BoE, ECB and IMF Spillover Conference 2025

“Policy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flows”

Frankfurt am Main, 29-30 April 2025
Hybrid event

As the world economy faces unprecedented shifts, the dynamics of global trade, exchange rates and capital flows are evolving in ways that challenge established economic theory and policy frameworks. Rising geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation and changing approaches to trade policy and financial regulation are reshaping global integration, capital mobility, and currency stability.

This conference brings together recent research in international economics and finance, offering insights that can inform policy design and support effective interventions. 

Registration

If you would like to attend one or both days of the conference remotely, please register via the links below.

Programme

* indicates the presenter

Tuesday, 29 April
8:30

Registration and coffee

9:00

Welcome Speech

Chair: Isabel Vansteenkiste, Director General International & European Relations, European Central Bank

Financial and trade fragmentation: risks and policy alternatives

Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank

9:30

Session 1
Geoeconomics and spillovers

Session chair: Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank

Violent conflict and cross-border lending

  • Ralph De Haas, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and CEPR
  • Mikhail Mamonov*, Toulouse Business School
  • Alexander Popov, European Central Bank and CEPR
  • Iliriana Shala, Deutsche Bundesbank and Goethe University
Discussant: Mancy Luo, Bayes Business School

Industrial and trade policy in supply chains - the case of rare earth elements

  • Laura Alfaro, Harvard Business School, NBER and CEPR
  • Harald Fadinger, University of Vienna and CEPR
  • Jan Schymik*, University of Mannheim
  • Gede Virananda, Harvard Kennedy School

Discussant: Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, European Central Bank 

11:30

Coffee break

12:00

Session 2 – Part 1
Global Value chains and trade fragmentation

Session chair: Aqib Aslam, International Monetary Fund

The US-China trade war and the relocation of global value chains to Mexico

  • Hale Utar, Grinnell College, IZA and CESifo
  • Alfonso Cebreros Zurita, Banco de Mexico
  • Luis Torres Ruiz, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Discussant: Justin Pierce, Federal Reserve Board

13:00

Buffet lunch

14:30

Session 2 – Part 2
Global Value chains and trade fragmentation

Session chair: Aqib Aslam, International Monetary Fund

Accounting for propagation

  • Lukas Boeckelmann*, European Central Bank
  • Jean Imbs, New York University Abu Dhabi and CEPR
  • Laurent Pauwels, New York University Abu Dhabi and CAMA

Discussant: Anastasiia Antonova, Aix-Marseille School of Economics

15:30

Coffee break

15:45

Session 3
Shock spillovers

Session chair: Sonya Zhu, Bank for International Settlements 

Granular expectation shocks and international financial contagion

  • Kenza Benhima*, University of Lausanne and CEPR
  • Elio Bolliger, University of Lausanne
  • Margaret Davenport, King’s College London

Discussant: Paula Beltran, International Monetary Fund

Asymmetries in international financial spillovers

  • Florian Huber, University of Salzburg
  • Karin Klieber*, European Central Bank
  • Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University and CEPR
  • Luca Onorante, European Commission Joint Research Centre
  • Michael Pfarrhofer, Vienna University of Economics and Business

Discussant: Angela Abbate, Swiss National Bank

17:45

End of first conference day

19:00

Dinner – by invitation only

Wednesday, 30 April
8:30

Registration and coffee

9:00

Session 4
Capital flows

Session chair: Julia Giese, Bank of England 

Global bank lending and exchange rates

  • Jonas Becker, Goethe University Frankfurt
  • Xiang Li*, Halle Institute for Economic Research
  • Maik Schmeling, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR
  • Andreas Schrimpf, Bank for International Settlements and CEPR

Discussant: Christian Kubitza, European Central Bank

Unbalanced financial globalization

  • Damien Capelle*, International Monetary Fund
  • Bruno Pellegrino, Columbia Business School

Discussant: Kai Arvai, Banque de France

11:00

Coffee break

11:30

Session 5
International role of currencies & exchange rates

Session chair: Massimo Ferrari Minesso, European Central Bank 

Measuring dollar funding shortage

Maylin Sun*, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Filiz Unsal, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

Beyond bilateral flows: Indirect connections and exchange rates

  • Saleem Bahaj, University College London
  • Pasquale Della Corte*, Imperial College London and CEPR 
  • Daniele Massacci, King’s College London and University of Naples Federico II
  • Eduard Seyde, Imperial College London

Discussant: Giacomo Romanini, Banca d’Italia

13:30

Buffet lunch

15:00

End of conference

Please note that this programme may be subject to change without notice.

Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet / intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please approach the photographer directly. The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet / intranet.

General information

Venue

European Central Bank
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main

Lanugage

English

Transfers

Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.

Organising committee
  • Paula Beltran, International Monetary Fund
  • Paolo Cavallino, Bank for International Settlements
  • Michele Ca’ Zorzi, European Central Bank
  • Massimo Ferrari, European Central Bank
  • Marco Garofalo, Bank of England
  • Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank
  • Gianni Lombardo, Bank for International Settlements
  • Alberto Musso, International Monetary Fund
  • Andrea Presbitero, International Monetary Fund
  • Marco Pinchetti, Bank of England
  • Roger Vicquery, Bank of England
  • Soyna Zhu, Bank for International Settlements
Contacts