Joint BIS, BoE, ECB and IMF Spillover Conference 2025
“Policy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flows”
Frankfurt am Main, 29-30 April 2025
Hybrid event
As the world economy faces unprecedented shifts, the dynamics of global trade, exchange rates and capital flows are evolving in ways that challenge established economic theory and policy frameworks. Rising geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation and changing approaches to trade policy and financial regulation are reshaping global integration, capital mobility, and currency stability.
This conference brings together recent research in international economics and finance, offering insights that can inform policy design and support effective interventions.
Programme
* indicates the presenter
- 8:30
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Registration and coffee
- 9:00
-
Welcome Speech
Chair: Isabel Vansteenkiste, Director General International & European Relations, European Central Bank
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Financial and trade fragmentation: risks and policy alternatives
Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank
- 9:30
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Session 1
Geoeconomics and spilloversSession chair: Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank
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Violent conflict and cross-border lending
- Ralph De Haas, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and CEPR
- Mikhail Mamonov*, Toulouse Business School
- Alexander Popov, European Central Bank and CEPR
- Iliriana Shala, Deutsche Bundesbank and Goethe University
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Industrial and trade policy in supply chains - the case of rare earth elements
- Laura Alfaro, Harvard Business School, NBER and CEPR
- Harald Fadinger, University of Vienna and CEPR
- Jan Schymik*, University of Mannheim
- Gede Virananda, Harvard Kennedy School
Discussant: Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, European Central Bank
- 11:30
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Coffee break
- 12:00
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Session 2 – Part 1
Global Value chains and trade fragmentationSession chair: Aqib Aslam, International Monetary Fund
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The US-China trade war and the relocation of global value chains to Mexico
- Hale Utar, Grinnell College, IZA and CESifo
- Alfonso Cebreros Zurita, Banco de Mexico
- Luis Torres Ruiz, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Discussant: Justin Pierce, Federal Reserve Board
- 13:00
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Buffet lunch
- 14:30
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Session 2 – Part 2
Global Value chains and trade fragmentationSession chair: Aqib Aslam, International Monetary Fund
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Accounting for propagation
- Lukas Boeckelmann*, European Central Bank
- Jean Imbs, New York University Abu Dhabi and CEPR
- Laurent Pauwels, New York University Abu Dhabi and CAMA
Discussant: Anastasiia Antonova, Aix-Marseille School of Economics
- 15:30
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Coffee break
- 15:45
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Session 3
Shock spilloversSession chair: Sonya Zhu, Bank for International Settlements
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Granular expectation shocks and international financial contagion
- Kenza Benhima*, University of Lausanne and CEPR
- Elio Bolliger, University of Lausanne
- Margaret Davenport, King’s College London
Discussant: Paula Beltran, International Monetary Fund
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Asymmetries in international financial spillovers
- Florian Huber, University of Salzburg
- Karin Klieber*, European Central Bank
- Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University and CEPR
- Luca Onorante, European Commission Joint Research Centre
- Michael Pfarrhofer, Vienna University of Economics and Business
Discussant: Angela Abbate, Swiss National Bank
- 17:45
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End of first conference day
- 19:00
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Dinner – by invitation only
- 8:30
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Registration and coffee
- 9:00
-
Session 4
Capital flowsSession chair: Julia Giese, Bank of England
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Global bank lending and exchange rates
- Jonas Becker, Goethe University Frankfurt
- Xiang Li*, Halle Institute for Economic Research
- Maik Schmeling, Goethe University Frankfurt and CEPR
- Andreas Schrimpf, Bank for International Settlements and CEPR
Discussant: Christian Kubitza, European Central Bank
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Unbalanced financial globalization
- Damien Capelle*, International Monetary Fund
- Bruno Pellegrino, Columbia Business School
Discussant: Kai Arvai, Banque de France
- 11:00
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Coffee break
- 11:30
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Session 5
International role of currencies & exchange ratesSession chair: Massimo Ferrari Minesso, European Central Bank
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Measuring dollar funding shortage
Maylin Sun*, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Filiz Unsal, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
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Beyond bilateral flows: Indirect connections and exchange rates
- Saleem Bahaj, University College London
- Pasquale Della Corte*, Imperial College London and CEPR
- Daniele Massacci, King’s College London and University of Naples Federico II
- Eduard Seyde, Imperial College London
Discussant: Giacomo Romanini, Banca d’Italia
- 13:30
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Buffet lunch
- 15:00
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End of conference
Please note that this programme may be subject to change without notice.
Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet / intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please approach the photographer directly. The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet / intranet.
General information
European Central Bank
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main
English
Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.
- Paula Beltran, International Monetary Fund
- Paolo Cavallino, Bank for International Settlements
- Michele Ca’ Zorzi, European Central Bank
- Massimo Ferrari, European Central Bank
- Marco Garofalo, Bank of England
- Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank
- Gianni Lombardo, Bank for International Settlements
- Alberto Musso, International Monetary Fund
- Andrea Presbitero, International Monetary Fund
- Marco Pinchetti, Bank of England
- Roger Vicquery, Bank of England
- Soyna Zhu, Bank for International Settlements
Georgios Georgiadis
+49 (0) 162 210 76 05
[email protected]
Massimo Ferrari Minesso
+49 (0) 151 463 78 462
[email protected]