European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice

Welcome address

Massimo Rostagno, European Central Bank

Session 1 Monetary policy and financial markets

This session focuses on the interplay between monetary policy and financial markets. In particular, it will shed light on how financial market information can help to measure and interpret monetary policy actions, and it will assess how standard and non-standard monetary policy measures are transmitted via the term structure of interest rates and other asset prices.

Keynote speech

Chair: Hans-Joachim Klöckers, European Central Bank

Hyun Song Shin, Bank for International Settlements

Exchange rates in monetary policy frameworks

Session chair: Oreste Tristani, European Central Bank

Measuring euro area monetary policy

• Refet S. Gürkaynak*, Bilkent University
• Carlo Altavilla, European Central Bank
• Luca Brugnolini, Central Bank of Malta
• Roberto Motto, European Central Bank
• Giuseppe Ragusa, London Business School

Discussant: Michael McMahon, University of Oxford

A portfolio-balance approach to the nominal term structure

Thomas King, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Discussant: Lena Mareen Boneva, European Central Bank

Expected inflation, real rates, and stock-bond co-movement

Gregory R. Duffee, Johns Hopkins University

Discussant: Emanuel Mönch, Deutsche Bundesbank

Buffet lunch

Session 2 Monetary policy, credit and banking

This session focuses on the interplay between monetary policy and developments in credit aggregates and the banking system from both a microeconomic and a macroeconomic perspective. In particular, it analyses the bank lending channel of monetary policy – with a focus on loans, lending rates and funding conditions – and the transmission of monetary policy via banks, including the interaction with microprudential and macroprudential policies.

Keynote speech

Chair: Natacha Valla, European Central Bank

Money market functioning and interbank uncertainty

Harald Uhlig, University of Chicago

Coffee break

Session chair: Cornelia Holthausen, European Central Bank

Banking supervision, monetary policy and risk-taking: big data evidence from 15 credit registers

• José-Luis Peydró*, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
• Carlo Altavilla, European Central Bank
• Miguel Boucinha, European Central Bank
• Frank Smets, European Central Bank

Discussant: Enrico Sette, Banca d’Italia

The real effects of credit booms and busts

• Egon Zakrajsek*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
• Simon Gilchrist, New York University
• Michael Siemer, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Discussant: Sascha Steffen, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management

Credit supply and housing speculation

• Atif Mian*, Princeton University
• Amir Sufi, University of Chicago

Discussant: Ester Faia, Goethe University Frankfurt

Dinner – by invitation only

Dinner speech

Tobias Adrian, International Monetary Fund

Alternative policy paths and the balance of risk

Opening addressCurrent challenges for the science of monetary policy

Christopher A. Sims, Princeton University

Session 3 Monetary policy frameworks and strategies

This session reviews the extent to which the main monetary policy paradigms developed by academics and policy institutions prior to the crisis would need to be revised in the light of measures taken by central banks to address the crisis and the evidence on how the economy responded to these measures. In particular, this session will cover issues related to the relevance of the Neo-Fisherian perspective, the transmission mechanism, determinants of the natural rate, unconventional measures and heterogeneity.

Keynote speech

Chair: Frank Smets, European Central Bank

Ricardo Reis, London School of Economics

Monetary policy and inflation through the prism of long-term rates

Session chair: Massimo Rostagno, European Central Bank

Interest rate conundrums in the 21st century

• Jonathan Wright*, Johns Hopkins University
• Samuel G. Hanson, Harvard Business School
• David O. Lucca, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Discussant: Philippe Andrade, Banque de France

The Neo-Fisher effect

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Columbia University

Discussant: Florin Bilbiie, University of Lausanne

The liquidity trap: a unified theory of the Great Depression and the Great Recession

Gauti Eggertsson, Brown University

Discussant: Martin Ellison, University of Oxford

Policy panel

Chair: Peter Praet, European Central Bank

Panellists

• Christopher A. Sims, Princeton University
• Catherine Mann, Citi
• Ricardo Reis, London School of Economics
• Lars Svensson, Stockholm School of Economics

End of conference