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Latest results from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Overview

This report contains the results for inflation expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).

Tables 1 and 2 provide a comparison of the latest SPF data with other expectations and projections for headline HICP inflation and HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX inflation) respectively.

For more detailed information on the data contact the SPF team at ECB-SPF@ecb.europa.eu.



Table 1 - SPF results for HICP inflation in comparison with other expectations and projections

year-on-year percentage changes

Source: SPF, Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections and Consensus Economics.

Notes: Longer-term expectations refer to 2029.



Table 2 - SPF results for HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX inflation) in comparison with other expectations and projections

year-on-year percentage changes

Source: SPF, Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections and Consensus Economics.

Notes: Longer-term expectations refer to 2029. HICPX also excludes alcohol and tobacco.

Expectations for HICP inflation

In the quantitative questionnaire, respondents are asked to provide their point forecasts for HICP headline inflation for six future target periods, expressed in year-on-year percentage changes. The questionnaire asks for annual average inflation for the current calendar year and the following two years, as well as for the longer term (which, depending on the timing of the survey may be as much as four or five calendar years in the future). It also asks for monthly forecasts for rolling horizons one and two years ahead of the latest published datapoint, as these support a more robust analysis of uncertainty surrounding the forecasts.
Besides the point forecasts, respondents are also asked to provide probability distributions using fixed bins.

Chart 1

Expectations for headline HICP inflation and HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX inflation)

calendar year forecasts (annual percentage changes)

Created with Highcharts 9.3.1HICP SPF Q1 2025HICP SPF Q4 2024HICPX SPF Q1 2025HICPX SPF Q4 2024HICP SPF Q1 2025HICP SPF Q4 2024HICPX SPF Q1 2025HICPX SPF Q4 20242024202520262027202820291.7522.252.52.753

Source: SPF.

Notes: HICPX also excludes alcohol and tobacco.

Chart 2

Expectations for headline HICP inflation and HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX inflation)

rolling horizons (annual percentage changes)

Created with Highcharts 9.3.1HICP SPF Q1 2025HICP SPF Q4 2024HICPX SPF Q1 2025HICPX SPF Q4 2024HICP SPF Q1 2025HICP SPF Q4 2024HICPX SPF Q1 2025HICPX SPF Q4 2024Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26Jul-26Oct-261.851.91.9522.052.12.15

Source: SPF.

Notes: HICPX also excludes alcohol and tobacco.

Chart 3

Aggregate probability distributions

headline HICP inflation (x-axis: annual percentage changes; y-axis: probability, percentages)

Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ -0.8%-0.7 to -0.3%-0.2 to 0.2%0.3 to 0.7%0.8 to 1.2%1.3 to 1.7%1.8 to 2.2%2.3 to 2.7%2.8 to 3.2%3.3 to 3.7%3.8 to 4.2%4.3 to 4.7%≥ 4.8%01020304050
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ -0.8%-0.7 to -0.3%-0.2 to 0.2%0.3 to 0.7%0.8 to 1.2%1.3 to 1.7%1.8 to 2.2%2.3 to 2.7%2.8 to 3.2%3.3 to 3.7%3.8 to 4.2%4.3 to 4.7%≥ 4.8%0510152025303540
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q1 2025≤ -0.8%-0.7 to -0.3%-0.2 to 0.2%0.3 to 0.7%0.8 to 1.2%1.3 to 1.7%1.8 to 2.2%2.3 to 2.7%2.8 to 3.2%3.3 to 3.7%3.8 to 4.2%4.3 to 4.7%≥ 4.8%0510152025303540
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ -0.8%-0.7 to -0.3%-0.2 to 0.2%0.3 to 0.7%0.8 to 1.2%1.3 to 1.7%1.8 to 2.2%2.3 to 2.7%2.8 to 3.2%3.3 to 3.7%3.8 to 4.2%4.3 to 4.7%≥ 4.8%0510152025303540

Source: SPF.

Notes: The SPF asks respondents to report their point forecasts and, separately, to assign probabilities to different ranges of outcomes.
This chart shows the average probabilities assigned to different ranges of inflation outcomes in 2025, 2026, 2027 and the longer term.
Longer-term expectations refer to 2029.

Chart 4

Aggregate probability distributions

HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX inflation) (x-axis: annual percentage changes; y-axis: probability, percentages)

Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ -0.8%-0.7 to -0.3%-0.2 to 0.2%0.3 to 0.7%0.8 to 1.2%1.3 to 1.7%1.8 to 2.2%2.3 to 2.7%2.8 to 3.2%3.3 to 3.7%3.8 to 4.2%4.3 to 4.7%≥ 4.8%0510152025303540
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ -0.8%-0.7 to -0.3%-0.2 to 0.2%0.3 to 0.7%0.8 to 1.2%1.3 to 1.7%1.8 to 2.2%2.3 to 2.7%2.8 to 3.2%3.3 to 3.7%3.8 to 4.2%4.3 to 4.7%≥ 4.8%01020304050
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q1 2025≤ -0.8%-0.7 to -0.3%-0.2 to 0.2%0.3 to 0.7%0.8 to 1.2%1.3 to 1.7%1.8 to 2.2%2.3 to 2.7%2.8 to 3.2%3.3 to 3.7%3.8 to 4.2%4.3 to 4.7%≥ 4.8%010203040
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ -0.8%-0.7 to -0.3%-0.2 to 0.2%0.3 to 0.7%0.8 to 1.2%1.3 to 1.7%1.8 to 2.2%2.3 to 2.7%2.8 to 3.2%3.3 to 3.7%3.8 to 4.2%4.3 to 4.7%≥ 4.8%010203040

Source: SPF.

Notes: Respondents are asked to report their point forecasts and, separately, to assign probabilities to different ranges of outcomes. This chart shows the average probabilities assigned to different ranges of inflation outcomes in 2025, 2026, 2027 and in the longer term.
Longer-term expectations refer to 2029.
HICPX also excludes alcohol and tobacco.

Chart 5

Measures of longer-term inflation expectations over time

(annual percentage changes)

Created with Highcharts 9.3.1Average point forecastMedian point forecastMean of the aggregate probability distributionAverage point forecastMedian point forecastMean of the aggregate probability distribution20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220241.51.7522.25
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1Average point forecastMedian point forecastMean of the aggregate probability distributionAverage point forecastMedian point forecastMean of the aggregate probability distribution2017201820192020202120222023202420251.251.51.7522.25

Source: SPF.

Notes: HICPX also excludes alcohol and tobacco.

Chart 6

Distribution of point forecasts

headline HICP inflation (x-axis: annual percentage changes; y-axis: percentages of respondents)

Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ 1.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.22.32.4≥ 2.5051015202530
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ 1.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.22.32.4≥ 2.50510152025303540
Created with Highcharts 9.3.1SPF Q3 2024SPF Q4 2024SPF Q1 2025≤ 1.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.22.32.4≥ 2.5010203040506070

Source: SPF.

Notes: Respondents are asked to report their point forecasts and, separately, to assign probabilities to different ranges of outcomes. This chart shows the spread of point forecast responses (rounded to the first decimal place).