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Luís Fonseca
Monetary Policy
- Division
Capital Markets/Financial Structure
- Current Position
-
Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Financial Economics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics
- Education
- 2015-2022
PhD in Economics, London Business School, United Kingdom
- 2010-2012
MSc in Economics, Nova School of Business and Economics, Portugal
- 2007-2010
Bachelor in Economics, University of Porto, Portugal
- Professional experience
- 2022-
Economist, DG Monetary Policy, European Central Bank
- 2021-2022
Graduate Programme in Economics, DG Monetary Policy, European Central Bank
- 2013-2015
Economist, Economics and Research Department, Banco de Portugal
- 23 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2994Details
- Abstract
- We construct monetary policy indicators from high-frequency asset price changes following policy announcements, emphasising the concentration of asset price responses along specific dimensions and their leptokurtic distribution. Traditionally, these dimensions are identified by rotating principal components based on economic assumptions that overlook information in excess kurtosis. We employ Varimax rotation, leveraging excess kurtosis without using economic restrictions. Within a set of euro-area risk-free assets Varimax validates policy news along dimensions previously derived from structural identification approaches and rejects evidence of macroinformation shocks. Yet, once adding risky assets Varimax identifies only one risk-free factor in medium- to long-term yields and instead points to additional risk-shift factors.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
C46 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Specific Distributions, Specific Statistics
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
- 7 November 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box highlights the recent inversion of the euro area and US yield curves and considers its information content for the future state of these economies. The slope of the yield curve is currently negative and the most steeply inverted it has been in decades for both the euro area and the United States. Among other factors, a negative slope may reflect investors’ expectations that the macroeconomic outlook will worsen, inflation will decline and longer-term yields will be lower as growth slows. In the past, the slope has typically had statistical predictive power for economic downturns. Recent estimates based on this indicator point to a high probability of a recession in the next 12 months in both jurisdictions. However, estimated recession probabilities are considerably lower when the models include information from additional financial indicators and oil prices, and when they account for the yield impact of the balance sheet policies of central banks. The analysis therefore highlights that a simple translation of the current historically negative yield curve slopes into a high recession probability would be an incomplete assessment.
- JEL Code
- G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
- 2023
- Journal of International Economics
- 2020
- Journal of Monetary Economics