Nicht auf Deutsch verfügbar.
Ferdinand Dreher
- 28 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- The article examines how the ECB’s accountability practices have evolved during the ninth term of the European Parliament (2019-2024) and how these compare to previous parliamentary terms. It highlights innovations in the ECB’s accountability practices, including enhanced communication efforts and coverage of new initiatives, such as the digital euro project, which motivated extensive dialogue with the European Parliament. While focusing on central banking accountability in relation to monetary policy, it also outlines the accountability channels for ECB Banking Supervision. Overall, the article illustrates the fruitful joint efforts by the ECB and the European Parliament to effectively shape the accountability relationship and continue to enhance the dialogue between the two institutions.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 23 April 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This article shows that trust in the ECB needs to be analysed and understood as a multifaceted concept. Analysis of data from the Consumer Expectations Survey shows that trust is not a matter of “yes” or “no”, rather, it exists on a spectrum. On aggregate, the distribution of individuals’ expressions of trust shows that trust in the ECB held up well during the pandemic and in the period of heightened inflation thereafter. On a scale of 0 to 10, a majority of respondents have a trust level between 5 and 8. The survey shows that the distribution of expressions of trust has been relatively stable since 2020, reflecting the stability of opinions at the individual level. Once individuals have a view on the ECB, it appears that they are unlikely to change their opinion quickly. At the same time, trust in the ECB co-moves strongly with trust in other institutions included in the survey. This suggests that, for many respondents, trust in the ECB may reflect their assessment of institutions in general, rather than an ECB-specific assessment.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
- 24 September 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews the impact of changes in indirect taxes on inflation developments in the euro area. In the past, increases in indirect taxes have tended to contribute positively to inflation in the euro area. However, the recent reductions in indirect taxes in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in several euro area countries, in particular in Germany, have not been seen before in the euro area on this scale. The impact they will have on inflation is surrounded by considerable uncertainty, but overall the pass-through is likely to be incomplete and to vary across sectors. In this respect, the September 2020 staff projections expect only a quite limited pass-through. The effects are nevertheless large enough to imply a slight V-shape profile for underlying inflation excluding the effects of changes in indirect taxes concealed in the annual numbers for HICPX, as well as a gradual increase between 2020 and 2022.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
H22 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Incidence
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 17 June 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews recent developments in short-time work and temporary lay-off schemes in the five largest euro area countries. It then calculates wage replacement rates and estimates take-up rates. Combining wage replacement rates with the estimated number of participants makes it possible to calculate the impact of short-time work on household disposable income. The box concludes that short-time work and temporary lay-off measures are significantly buffering the impact of COVID-19 on households’ disposable income.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
- 27 December 2019
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2019Details
- Abstract
- The box assesses recent developments in social security contributions and minimum wages. It finds that social security contributions have led to a moderation of growth in composition of employee growth, while growth in wages and salaries per employee – excluding employers’ social security contributions – has remained quite robust. Over the last decade minimum wages have affected wage growth substantially in some countries, but only marginally in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
- 2 May 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2149Details
- Abstract
- Traditional carry trade strategies are based on differences in short-term interest rates, neglecting any other information embedded in yield curves. We derive return distributions of carry trade portfolios among G10 currencies, where the signals to buy and sell currencies are based on summary measures of the yield curve, the Nelson-Siegel factors. We find that a strategy based on the relative curvature factor, the curvy trade, yields higher Sharpe ratios and a smaller return skewness than traditional carry trade strategies. Curvy trades build less upon the typical carry currencies, like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, and are hence less susceptible to crash risk. In line with that, standard pricing factors of traditional carry trade returns, such as exchange rate volatility, fail to explain curvy trade returns in a linear asset pricing framework. Our findings are in line with recent interpretations of the curvature factor. A relatively high curvature signals a relatively higher path of future short-term rates over the medium-term putting upward pressure on the currency.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions